DEFENCE
-
THE
CHANGING
PRIORITIES
July 2004 - OCTOBER 19th 2010
JULY 23 2004
Let me start by getting rid of one line of argument that has to be
dumped for good. We have heard it said today that we cannot cut the
infantry numbers because, for example, we need to keep a sufficient
reserve in case the Firemen go on strike. I have news for the man who
uses that argument - and it may or may not be news to the reader.
It is not the job of the British Army to stand in for the fire services
any more than it is for Firemen to fight or peace-keep across the
globe, for Britain or our allies or the UN. In the case of a terrorist
arson attack, if the Fire Service were to be overwhelmed, the Army
would come to their assistance if this was possible in the time; but
the Army is not there to take the place of firemen on strike. We all
depend on our public services, and those which are dangerous and
demanding such as the Police and Fire services have to be staffed by
people who take it seriously. They may lose their lives defending the
innocent and sometimes rescuing the foolish as well as the unlucky.
They and the rest of us hope that most of the time this is not the
case, and casualties are rare, but there will be times when they are
not.
All this has nothing to do with firemens' salaries or terms of
employment - both of these are known to the individual when he starts a
career in the service. But what has happened in the last few years in
the way of suddenly rising living expenses associated with property
prices etc has caught some people by surprise. It has made some richer
on paper, in theory. But for others it has brought financial problems -
additional expenses they had not anticipated, losses they had not
anticipated. These are the pressures that can lead to industrial
action. But the army is not there to get involved in domestic politics
or to stand in for the the firemen, and that has to be clearly
understood by all. We have to remain a coherent society that is self
supporting. If we are not, we are no longer a nation worth defending
and we might as well disband all our armed services.
Now to more sensible issues. The changes being brought about are not
designed to reduce the number of personnel who do those jobs that are
seen to be needed, where individuals on the ground, at sea or in the
air are bringing stability and security. The move to modern technology
is precisely to enable more people to be in the visible, front-line
positions where they meet the real world. This is achieved by releasing
them from the mass of administrative tasks that are still being handled
by outdated methods. It is achieved by mastering the control of
information, not the proliferation of it. It means knowing what is
going on, and where, so that the very people who count, who can give
matters their personal attention, are taken by surprise less often, can
get to the scene more quickly, with the equipmen and skills that are
required. So the high-tech investement, that has been criticised by
some as no substitute for people on he ground, is not even attempting
that. It is to get more people on the ground, at the right time.
It is an emotional shock when an RAF Squadron is axed, when a Station
like Coltishall, with all its history, is closed. It is a challenge to
the commercial survival of the local community. But it is impossible to
devise a world in which this cannot happen without building up wider
situations which would become dangerously unstable. These changes do
not come without warning. They are not implemented instantly. They take
time to take effect. The changes that are planned are to prepare for
tasks that are required in the future, in a changing world.
JB July 23 2004
DECEMBER 13 2006 Since writing the above, it appears that global
demands on the military have risen but global job opportunities for
potential recruits to the British Army have not made recruitment of
'the
best' a piece of cake.
Military shortages "pose danger"
Wednesday December 13, 10:32 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - A shortage
of troops and
equipment could compromise British military operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan, lawmakers said on Wednesday.
The military is struggling to
recruit, train and keep staff, while
their work is expanding, a report by an influential parliamentary panel
said.
Army chiefs have warned that
Britain's forces are fully stretched, with 7,200 based in southern Iraq
and nearly 6,000 more fighting a revitalised Taliban in Afghanistan.
Prime Minister Tony Blair, whose
popularity plunged over the Iraq war,
has come under pressure to improve pay and conditions for the armed
forces.
Parliament's Defence Select
Committee, which scrutinises defence
ministry policy and spending, said the shortages would hit Britain's
ability to "fight the next war".
The panel also raised concerns
over the lack of helicopters in Iraq and Afghanistan, where Britain is
a key U.S. ally.
"They are operating in
challenging conditions in insufficient numbers
and without all the equipment they need," their report says.
"With problems of undermanning
continuing, there is a clear danger that
the armed forces will not be capable of maintaining current commitments
over the medium-term."
A fifth of Britain's armed
forces are deployed on military operations.
Last week, former British army
chief General Sir Mike Jackson said the government was "asking too
much" of the armed forces.
"There is ... a mismatch between
what we do and the resources we are given," he said.
In October, his successor,
General Sir Richard Dannatt, sparked
controversy when he said British troops had "exacerbated" problems in
Iraq. He warned that his forces were badly stretched.
The Conservatives said Blair
must take urgent steps to tackle shortages in the armed forces.
"He must address the mismatch
between our military commitments and the
decrease in our frontline capabilities," said Shadow Defence Secretary
Liam Fox.
In a statement, the defence
ministry said it was "keenly aware" of the
burdens placed on its staff, but said the operations were sustainable.
"Commanders are content that the
armed forces can cope with the current level of military commitments,"
it said.
DECEMBER
24th
2006 Before reading the following, bear in
mind that the maintenance of the UK Armed Forces over the past 30 years
has been financed due to the discovery and exploitation of North Sea
Oil and Gas, often by British companies and always with benefit to the
UK Treasury. That is not to say we cannot develop and exploit other
assets and talents to keep them up to scratch in the future, but it
will not happen without a deliberate policy to ensure this happens.
Armed forces 'face tinpot future'
Britain's armed forces could be
reduced to a "tinpot gendarmerie"
because of a lack of investment, the former head of the Royal Navy has
warned.
Admiral Sir Alan West said
the Ministry of Defence (MoD) was behaving "like these tinpot
countries" that do not put money into major equipment programmes.
He told the Sunday Telegraph
Britain's global status could be at risk if plans for two aircraft
carriers were dropped.
"Our forces are among the best
equipped in the world," an MoD spokeswoman said.
Sir Alan, who retired this year, told the newspaper that the Royal
Navy's aircraft carrier programme was the "jewel in the crown of the
strategic defence review".
He said he had set aside £3.5bn for the project, but
warned: "There are officials within the MoD who are casting lascivious
looks at [the programme].
"There is no doubt that the rats are out there having a
nibble. If Britain wants to remain a world power and to operate with a
deal of freedom around the world, these two carriers are vital."
He said reshaping the forces for "anti-terror" campaigns in places
like Iraq may risk the UK's long-term security.
He said it "was a recipe for disaster" for a defence force which
may have so much to do in the next 50 years.
But a spokeswoman for the MoD said the defence budget for 2007-8
would be £3.7bn higher than in 2004-5 in real terms.
"We are using these extra resources to modernise our armed forces
to meet the challenges of the 21st Century," she said.
'Frankly shaming'
Sir Alan also warned that in 10 years' time the threat facing the UK
could be something "far more dangerous than terrorism in central Asia".
He said that by spending money on running rather than
developing the armed forces "all we could be left with is an armed
forces that is effectively a gendarmerie.
"And I suppose we would retire to our island and hope that no-one
gets to us."
Sir Alan is the latest senior military figure to speak out about
issues affecting the armed forces.
In October, army head Gen Sir Richard Dannatt said in a newspaper
interview that the presence of UK troops in Iraq "exacerbates the
security problems" and they should "get out some time soon".
And his predecessor Gen Sir Mike Jackson earlier this month
criticised the Ministry of Defence's running of the armed forces.
NOVEMBER
23rd
2007
It
is a pity that the call from the retired Chiefs of the General Staff
has descended to abuse of the PM. His absence at certain meetings on
certain occasions, political, military and social, has in the past
often been taken as rudeness or contempt and this is unfortunate, as it
was never the case. We most of us carry a certainamount of 'baggage'
with us as we make out way up the career ladder . Only a few like
myself have the opportunity to start at the top and work their way down
under the excuse of experimental research and development. Gordon Brown
has done his best to carry his persona and his personal aims through
the stormy waters. It is hard to be all things to all men and women.
The
retired
chiefs
are
right,
our
military
is
overstretched.
But
that is
not for lack of poilitical will in the cabinet. Nor can I go along with
the mother of a soldier whose unfortunate death MIGHT have been avoided
if new bomb-detection devices had been taken outof stores a week
earlier and fitted to his particular vehicle. These things take time.
Being a soldier in Iraq or Afghanistan is a very dangerous occupation.
That is what soldiers do. So I welcome the call from the Chiefs of
Staff, but we must understand that fighting a necessary war in a far
off land is like any arduous task, full of circumstances which go
beyond our comfort zone. We will be asked to do the impossible just as
any team climbing Everest. With limitless funds and supplies we would
still be reliant on human factors, the skill and determination of our
armed services personnel. American casualties have been considerable.
So
the reason we need more funding is not to fight war in safety and
comfort, but to sustain the battle and win as soon as we can for the
sake of the civilians in the countries where these operations take
place. We need to plan for the future. The UK and France are the
nations that in effect provide the nuclear shield for the European
Union, thereby rendering European nuclear proliferation unnecessary.
They also provide, with help from our braver small EU members, the
effective expeditionary fighting forces to carry out UN and EU and NATO
tasks. We are therefore in my view in a position to demand, from the
richer EU states who do not contribute in men or machinery, to
contribute in funding to the UK defence budget if there turn out to be
tasks that we carry out globally on their behalf.
The
descent
of
the
once
mighty
Dollar
is
an
important
factor to take into
consideration here. It is giving Airbus one hell of a problem, but
perhaps there is another side to the coin which might enable Europe to
play an interesting financial card or two.
JANUARY
17th
2010
We have been fighting a war in Afghananistan on a peacetime military
budget for some time. Recent additions to the equipment have been
afforded by cuts elsewhere. Today the head of the army makes some
interesting points in The Sunday
Times about the army of the future:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article6991030.ece
General Sir
David Richards calls for new cyber-army
General Sir
David Richards, the chief of the general staff, says future wars will
require fewer tanks and ships but more high-tech troops
General Richards says good soldiers are far
cheaper than ships and aircraft
THE head of the British Army has foreshadowed the biggest change in
fighting tactics since the cavalry was phased out in favour of tanks
more than 80 years ago.
General Sir David Richards, the chief of the general staff, wants more
troops, unmanned spy planes and high-tech cyber-defences to be paid for
by slashing the budget for ships and fighter jets.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Richards said the UK’s armed
forces were facing a new “horse versus tank moment” to cope with the
challenges of modern warfare. The success of insurgents in Iraq and
Afghanistan and the emerging threat of cyber-attacks against Britain’s
infrastructure made radical change unavoidable. “People say I’m only
talking about war with non-state actors [such as the Taliban],” said
Richards. “I’m not. I’m saying this is how even war between states is
more likely to be fought in the future.”
The general’s views, particularly his call for fewer ships, aircraft
and even tanks, may put him on a collision course with other armed
forces chiefs. Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope, the head of the navy,
recently argued that the focus on Afghanistan risked leaving Britain
exposed to other threats.
Richards, however, compared his critics to the cavalry officers who
insisted, long after the introduction of the tank in the first world
war, that it would never replace horses.
He believes today’s opponents of change underestimate the way in which
Iraqi insurgents and the Taliban, combined with the growing
sophistication of cyber-terrorists, have rewritten the rules of war.
“We’ve been in denial ever since the end of the cold war,” he said. In
the two decades since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the military
has fought a succession of stabilisation or counterinsurgency
operations in the Balkans, Sierra Leone, Iraq and Afghanistan.
“But in our heart of hearts, we thought that was an aberration and we’d
go back to jolly old war-fighting like in the western desert or a hot
version [with battle lines drawn] of the cold war.”
With a defence review set to follow a spring general election, Richards
will expand on his views tomorrow at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies in London.
“Some are waiting for a conventional invasion of uniformed troops,
ready to be repulsed by heavy armour or ships,” he said. However, with
few countries capable of spending the billions required to challenge
America and its Nato allies in a conventional war, the general believes
such attacks are less likely.
Instead, countries opposed to Britain and the US will have seen from
Basra and Helmand “that for relatively little cost, unsophisticated
opponents with very cheap weaponry” can pose big threats. Some 249
British soldiers have died in Afghanistan since 2001.
“Why would you not learn a lesson from that and think, ‘Actually,
that’s how I would bring down great nations and great alliances, much
more subtly, cleverly and at much less risk’?”
Richards is adamant Britain will still need ships, aircraft and tanks —
but fewer. What will be required are more soldiers, more helicopters to
carry them and more unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, capable of
revealing enemy locations.
Richards said he lived in “the real world” and envisaged significant
spending cuts in the defence review — but argued that good soldiers
were far cheaper to maintain than ships and aircraft.
“My instinct as a soldier is that you’ll need quality manpower,” he
said. “Soldiers give you the most choice and the most utility in
today’s sort of conflict.”
Richards said technological advances also mean that Britain will need
to develop better defensive and offensive measures to ward off
cyber-attacks, possibly from state sponsors such as China and Russia.
Whatever the outcome of the defence review, Richards is adamant that
Britain and its allies must succeed in Afghanistan. He also played down
concerns expressed by some UK commanders that they might be forced to
give up parts of Helmand, such as Sangin or Musa Qala, to the US troop
surge.
“While the Americans are going in in such quantity, there’s no point in
us hanging on to something simply because we’ve got an affection for
it,” he said.
“Success in Afghanistan would demonstrate our commitment to the
organisations — Nato and the UN — that have guaranteed peace for more
than half a century. Defeat would act as a match, lighting a fuse that
could set light to parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia, bringing
down governments and undermining peace around the world,” Richards
said.
JUNE
14th
2010
We now have a new government, a Conservative-Liberal coalition. I refer
the reader here to the entry of today's date on the file for the start of this
government, which covers defence cuts.
AUGUST
8th
2010
Here are the rumours, published in The Telegraph, of drastic defence
cuts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/defence/7931465/RAF-to-shrink-to-World-War-One-levels.html
I am not sure the current
government has a clear perception of globalisation and how it affects
national economics, global security and the role of Britain in
alliances and the international community. We do need to re-organise,
but not on the basis of cutting expenditure or the human
resources employed in our armed forces, though there could be some
hefty cuts on the non-productive side just as the civil service needs a
cull - but not at the real coal-face or necessary admin. There could on
the other hand be an increase in intake and training where there is a
need. We must estimate the need in the foreseeable future, building in
flexibility and making sure skills and experience in critical streams
are not broken.
The defence of these islands is now based on different criteria to
those of previous eras. We are not a target for invasion by any
recognised state. We are a target for the violent or insidious actions
of the citizens of failed states and nations in civil and political
disarray. The role of our military must be in its vital contribution to
the stability of the EU and NATO and as part of any coalition of the
willing able to act on behalf of the UN. Our defence is based on global
stability, not on stopping the Dutch sailing up the Medway or Russia
achieving air superiority prior to buying our football clubs. George
Osborne has defined our national position as liability, not an asset,
so nobody wants us other than refugees fleeing war and destitution
compared to which our credit crunch and crime level is luxury.
There are roles we can carry out at sea, in the air, on land and in
combined operations in which the above mentioned international
organizations must have a leading a capability if they
are have to be in a position to play any meaningful role in maintaining
global stability and any civilization worth the name. Unless we intend
to delegate not only what we do now but what we could do should it be
required to others, we cannnot and should not reduce our capability in
any way. Before we delegate to others, they must show they are capable,
ready and agreeable to accept the role.
France and the UK hold a nuclear deterrent which serves all of Europe.
This is what we call a nuclear umbrella. Somebody has to hold it
because these weapons exist in the world. Nuclear umbrellas prevent
proliferation. No European nation wishes to take it on or for us to
give it up, though a massive global reduction in the nuclear stockpile
is a very important item on the international agenda.
Trident is the cheapest way to maintain a credible deterrent. In
deterrence, credibility is all. Other suggestions always welcome.
The UK should definitely have a top class Navy, with carriers and the
aircraft to go with them. I don't think any further explanation is
needed, though a study of maritime piracy should add to the argument
The RAF is a more complicated issue. While we do not need air
superiority to prevent a conventional invasion, we most certainly need
air superiority over these islands and in alliance with our EU
neighbours, over Europe, for a great many reasons. Aerial attack is at
the moment the greatest vulnerability of every nation. We also need to
impose air superiority in any theatre where we operate from time to
time at sea or on land over the globe on alliance or our own legitimate
interests. One of the complicated factors that make our calculations of
airpower requirements so difficult is that modern aircraft are the
product of a huge industrial process spearheaded by the major aircraft
manufacturers. This cannot be wound up and down at the whim of
government ministers or the treasury.
There is no rational solution to the economic problems associated with
UK's defence budget without a realisation that security is based on our
alliances and on regional responsibility and interests being realised
and accepted. Public support is required in democracies, but pragmatism
must replace ideology and nationalism. It does not help having people
such as ex US UN Ambassador Bolton shouting that he doesn't give a toss
about hearts and minds, just achieving and enforcing goals, when it is
obvious that it was hearts and minds everywhere, at home and abroad,
that brought victory in WW2 every bit as much as equipment.
When it comes to the Army, recent experience should give us a very good
idea of what we can do, can't do, should do and must be able to do.
Personally I think some form of military training should be part of
every UK citizen's early life, with a civil alternative version
available for conscientious objectors. This will give a basis on which
to have a pool to draw on. At the moment, the reason people join any of
the services is not based on anything rooted widely in the community.
When it come to equipment we need to decide what we should develop,
build, buy or borrow.
SEPTEMBER
16th
2010
After some meaningless argument about whether the Treasury of the MOD
should pay for the upgrade of Trident (or any replacement) it has now
been sensibly suggested that, since the financial problems are
immediate and related to our ability to borrow at reasonable interest
rates, the upgrade to Trident could be mildly delayed, thereby bringing
a considerable, immediate, if temporary saving in the defence budget.
With caution, I suggest this is the right move and presumably has been
on the back burner for some time. More detailed arguments on our
nuclear deterrent are in the file on that subject.
SEPTEMBER
29th
2010
I can understand Dr Fox being annoyed that he can't send a memo to PM
without it being leaked to the Telegraph but what he had to say was so
bleedin' obvious that he should have said it in puiblic, very loudly,
in the first place. For once I go along with the editorial choice of
The Telegraph to publish its stolen material.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11432620
OCTOBER 19th 2010
The Defence Cuts are announced offcially.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11570593
The Harrier cuts are not such a good idea. We need to keep (in my view)
a trained contingent of VTOL pilots and aircraft. They have more uses
than carrier borne take-off and carrier landing. However, in any event
we should get one carrier operational a soon as possible. If the
facts were as Cameron states, he could have some justification for his
complaints and his unsatisfactory solutions, but it is not clear that
they are.
FEBRUARY
16th
2011
SERIOIUS CUTS IN RAF PILOTS IN TRANING, AND IN EXPERIENCED ARMY
WARRANT-OFFICERS have sent shock waves through the country as well as
the services affected. There is some reason to suppose that these cuts
may save some expenditure in the short term but the disruption of the
systems is risky. The notices of end of employment was very badly
handled, presumably due to the speed with which these cuts are being
implemented. I am not going to write much here until I have had a long
think about this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12476706
APRIL 14th 2011
BBC NEWS HEADLINE: Libya: Nato appeals for more
planes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13074189
The
Libyan operation is a European problem. We led the decision making. But
NATO without the USA says it hasn't enough planes/pilots ready to do
the job the UN, through its resolutions, consigned to NATO to carry
out. How is this possible? The only European countries that appear to
be making a big enough profit to stay solvent these days are unwilling
to carry out NATO duties. In that case, in the words of Bob Geldof,
just SEND US YOUR F***ING MONEY so that those who are doing the job can
get on with it.
nnnn