JANUARY 31st 2005
It will not be the purpose of these pages to duplicate the news reports. I think we can now trust the UK media to report the progressive effects of regime change without undermining it by disagreeing with the motives and the methods to the extent that they nullify its intended outcome, which is what they very nearly did and would have done had not the nerve of the people of Iraq and the Coalition forces held firm. So comments will appear here as and when appropriate. Iraq could still tear itself apart. Iraqis will have to make up their minds to share the benefits and responsibilities or suffer the consequences of the failure to do so. It is up to them to choose, between Iraq and a hard place.

Feb 13th 2005
Reuters reports:

While the Shi'ite alliance won most votes, the percentage it received -- 47.6 percent -- was lower than many expected.

A coalition of the two main Kurdish parties won 25.4 percent and a bloc led by Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi got 13.6 percent, figures released by Iraq's Electoral Commission showed.

When in due course a new parliament and government is in place, they will have to decide how to proceed with improving the security situation and eventually enfranchising those who were deterred from voting this time by fear. Some of those abstained because they refuse to take part in elections may change heir mind the next time, but it is essential that general security at the polls is at last as good and hopefully better before a further election is held.
 
CORRECTION TO THE ABOVE AFTER FURTHER EXAMINATION FEB 17th [BBC News]

The Shia United Iraqi Alliance party has won a majority of seats in Iraq's new transitional parliament.

The party, which won the 30 January election with 48% of the vote, was allocated 140 seats.

The Kurdish parties, which came second in the poll, have 75 seats and interim PM Iyad Allawi's party gets 40 seats.

The new 275-seat National Assembly will now have to choose a president and two vice-presidents, who will then decide on a prime minister and cabinet.

Since a 2/3 majority is required to pass new legislation, negotiations on policy  and appointments will still be required between the parties.

MARCH 15th 2005
Italy is pulling out its troops, not surprising after the shooting of their secret service hero by trigger-happy US troops. It is no doubt a terrifying business to stand at a checkpoint in the dark while a car speeds towards you. It may well be that communications are cut to a minimum for security reasons when you are not sure if an Iraqi soldier is secretly a rebel paid by insurgent funds. It may be a risk to let your route be known to anyone in advance. But the fact remains that the Bush administration has made an enemy of a majority of Italian voters, and Berlusconi had to take some action to satisfy emotions. Instead of increasing international involvement on the ground we are seeing a decrease. We have moved closer to a hard place. There will have to be moves made in the opposite direction. Tomorrow we may have a new interim government or, in the lack of agreement, a ceremonial only for the start of a new parliament..

MARCH 18 2006
As yet no agreement on power sharing. It was never going to be easy. There can be no date set for withdrawal of coalition troops until power-sharing has not only been achieved but stabilised. It is too soon to say even if Italy will indeed pull out in September once emotions have cooled. Meanwhile at home in the UK there has been a welcome breath of enlightenment with the broadcasting by Channel 4 TV of "The Government Inspector", a drama based on the experiences of Dr David Kelly.

While the film does not claim to be a documentary, in my opinion it was as near to the truth as it is possible to get in spirit and in detail. There is little room for doubt that neither David Kelly nor BBC political analysts appreciated the truth that was made clear on this web site: that Saddam would play the intelligence game with two hands: one for internal use and one for external. He would make sure that he had no WMD to be discovered, while making it quite sure that he convinced those Iraqis who would attempt to remove him that he most certainly did and would use them to put down any insurrection. To that end he would allow inspections while refusing to allow proof of their destruction and without allowing his scientists to speak in public, or indeed anyone to speak about anything to do with internal politics.

But such was Dr Kelly's experience of being lied to about WMD (he had more experience than anybody) and such was his knowledge of Saddam's terror system that he remained convinced until after the invasion that everything he was being told led to the inescapable conclusion that WMD still existed in Iraq and the programmes were ready to continue as soon as coalition forces withdrew from the area. He was a man who liked to deal in truth. When he was suddenly faced with the fact that the Americans, having decided that once they had rolled out their troops there was no way home till Saddam had been removed (a conclusion Kelly concurred with) and that an absence to prove compliance was evidence of non compliance, Kelly was still outraged that any evidence for WMD that was not in his opinion absolutely sound should be used to for public political purposes. Kelly felt reasonably entitled to speak to journalists as this has always been part of his job. The full reason for his suicide was the only point where the film pulled its punches.

The BBC's utter determination to defend the fine detail of Andrew Gilligan's story led to cast iron claims that the Prime Minister knew that the evidence he was using to declare war was untrue. That he knew it was untrue before it was published. The basis for this was claimed by Gilligan to be Dr Kelly. The irony of his situation was unbelievable. The regime change which Kelly above all, who knew what it was like for technicians, government officials and diplomats in Iraq, knew to be essential, was now about to be put at risk by his own criticism of the coalition's careless use of intelligence that had come from unprofessional sources to bolster public opinion, All this had come about because of the unquenchable hubris of the BBC combined with the actions of the ant-war movement within the corporation. It was clear from the start that whoever the unknown 'source' for Gilligan's story was that his life would be ruined by the BBC's stance. The film did not make this point, and did not show any excerpts from such programmes as Question Time where viewers were asked to choose whether the Government or the BBC were fundamentally dishonest. But nevertheless is was a first class summary of all the other parts of the story and from what we saw it is evident.that Dr Kelly saw no way out.

If it turned out there were no WMD he would be blamed, as he had staked his reputation that there were. If there were none, it also meant there were moments toward the end when he had been used by the Americans, who had sent him to examine areas where they had destroyed evidence of old WMD activities to arouse his suspicions. On the other hand if there were WMD, he was now accused of undermining the process of regime change and it would be discovered that may have lied to the select committee examining the case when he had tried to back down. But then journalists apparently have no duty of care, and there employers can escape by dumping them at the end.

UPDATE MARCH 30th 2005
Today's report from the UN on the health of children in Iraq is not good news. Instead of an improvement since the removal of Saddam, there has been a deterioration, with 1 in 4 children now suffering from malnutrition. There is no doubt that the failure of the different factions to work together (they have not yet been able to agree on a speaker for the new parliament, let alone the senior governmental posts) is a contributing factor to the failure to inspire confidence in those who could begin to rebuild the economy and social security systems. For children, Iraq had moved further to becoming a harder place. Iraqis will have to put aside their differences if they are to turn this around.

APRIL 4th
We have significant progress. A brave man has already accepted the role as speaker.
The BBC's report:
Hajim al-Hassani may have been voted in as speaker of Iraq's parliament more because of who he is not, rather than who he is.

The grey-bearded 50-year-old took the position reserved for a Sunni Arab by a large majority of 215 votes out of 241 deputies present.

He was one of only two Sunni Arab MPs who were acceptable for the high profile, but largely powerless post.

APRIL 5th
Leading Iraqis have agreed the line-up of a three-man presidency to be submitted to parliament on Wednesday, senior government sources say.

Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani will be nominated as president, while outgoing President Ghazi Yawer will be one of two vice-presidents, the sources said.

They all deserve our respect and best wishes.

APRIL 6th
Iraqi Shia leader Ibrahim Jaafari has been named prime minister of the country's new interim government.

He was appointed shortly after Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani was sworn in as Iraq's new interim president.

Outgoing Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has resigned, but will continue his work until Mr Jaafari names his government.

The transitional government's main task will be to oversee the drafting of a permanent Iraqi constitution and to pave the way for elections in December.

Mr Jaafari, 58, is seen as one of Iraq's most popular political figures.

The above appointments represent an improvement on Saddam Hussein, I would have thought.

But....on the other hand

APRIL 13th 2005

... Wednesday April 13, 05:02 PM

Iraq violence flares as U.S. official visits

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A second senior U.S. official made a surprise visit to Iraq on Wednesday as Washington sought to play up Iraq's political transition, but the trip was overshadowed by violence and a U.S. hostage's plea for help.

The American, apparently a contractor kidnapped on Monday, appeared in a video and asked the U.S. government to negotiate with his captors to save his life, al Jazeera television reported.

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick arrived less than a day after U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made an unannounced visit and warned Iraq's new leaders against any abuse of office.

Shortly after Zoellick's arrival a bomb blew up near the oil city of Kirkuk as a group of Iraqi guards was trying to defuse it, killing nine and wounding four, the local police chief said.

In Baghdad there was a series of explosions, including a bomb that struck an oil tanker. Another bomb detonated on the road to the airport, wounding seven Iraqis.

The attacks again underscored the security challenges facing Iraq's newly-elected leaders, still deliberating over the formation of a government more than two months after the election.

"We are obviously, in the aftermath of this election, in a key period of political formation," Zoellick told reporters earlier on his military aircraft.

"This is a process of political transition, the formation of Iraqi democracy," he said. Shortly after his arrival in Baghdad, Zoellick travelled to Falluja, west of the capital, the site of some of the worst unrest in Iraq over the past two years.

There he discussed reconstruction with U.S. troops helping rebuild the city after a U.S. offensive last November which left much of it in ruins.

Zoellick, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's deputy, was to meet President Jalal Talabani, Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and other officials in Baghdad's heavily-fortified Green Zone.

ATTACKS ON US TROOPS

Of the four blasts that struck Baghdad, one was a car bomb targeting a joint U.S.-Iraqi military convoy in the Amiriya district. It seriously wounded four civilians, witnesses and hospital officials said. Three other explosions struck convoys in other parts of the city, including an attack on a U.S. convoy near the airport.

The U.S. military hopes to cut troop numbers in Iraq next year but that will depend on the training of Iraqi security forces, which have lost hundreds in bombings and attacks.

Iraqi troops have made progress against the insurgency since the election and violence appears to have eased but millions of Iraqis who defied suicide bombings to vote want to see the new government do more to end the bloodshed.

Iraqi Vice President Ghazi Yawar said it was time to put aside the official government line that U.S. troops will leave only when Iraqi troops are ready and start discussing a mechanism for their departure when the time is right.

"We can't say that when we have security forces then multinational forces would leave and at the same time we don't work on building these forces," he told Reuters. "I think that in a year we can begin gradually decreasing the number of these forces until they leave because it is not an easy process."

RAMPANT CRIME

Iraq's leaders will also have to confront rampant crime and an economy largely in ruins. Crime is of particular concern, with gangs responsible for hundreds of kidnappings in the past year.

The American contractor was kidnapped from a reconstruction site near Baghdad on Monday. The video showed the man holding up his passport as armed, masked insurgents stood by. Al Jazeera said the hostage "urged the U.S. administration to open a dialogue with the Iraqi resistance ... to save his life".

More than 150 foreigners and thousands of Iraqis have been abducted in the last year and many of them have been killed.

On his visit, Rumsfeld warned corruption and purges of security forces and ministries could sap the credibility of Iraq's new leaders and undermine the battle against insurgents.

Some fear Iraq's new Shi'ite leaders will purge the interior and defence ministries of Sunni Muslims with experience in security and intelligence.

Yawar was concerned that Sunnis, who gained wide experience in the security and intelligence services under Saddam, would be dismissed in a process called de-Baathification.

"Those who did not commit any crimes in the Baath should be allowed to join but not take sensitive positions in the state."

---

APRIL 30th 2005 - The insurgents mounted many attacks yesterday after " Iraq's first elected government in modern times, put together by new Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, has been given a big vote of approval in the recently-elected Iraqi parliament."
On June 5th 2003 - that is nearly 2 years ago - I wrote in a log still available on this site ( see postwar.html ) "Contrary to the title of this page and assertions of various protagonists, the war in Iraq is not over. Saddam's plan to stay alive and fund an army of terrorists (or patriots depending on your point of view, mercenaries or thieves anyway in practically any realistic point of view) is still in operation. They are joined by others with nothing to lose and no place to hope for in a new regime. The truth is that for a great many people there is little alternative."

That remains the case. In spite of the fact that Saddam is in gaol (where he should be) there was no doubt a considerable system of financial support that remains the best or only means of alternative survival for those inside and outside Iraq who were once supported by Saddam and his use of oil revenues.

Now we have a new government in Iraq, but it is still interim and still lacking serious Sunni participation. It seems that only the passage of time, with the exhaustion of both animosities and individuals, not to mention the horrific death of many innocent and guilty players, will bring about an improvement. Even this depends on the concerted efforts of the brave and dedicated Iraqis who are determined that tyranny is not the only way they can live in peace. Saddam modelled himself and his regime on Stalin, and he was proud of it. Stalin is gone, but Russia is still with problems. The legacy of such regimes is that the structure of democracy in the grass roots of society takes generations to establish itself to the extent that democracy can be other than centralised and dictatorial. However, violence of the sort that Iraq is suffering from can be reduced if key Sunnis support the new government and take part in further elections.

MAY 11th 2005
Suicide attacks are up to 70 a day, twice the previous monthly averages. This is going to stretch the resolve of Iraqis and call for a proactive approach, with international support, to take tighter control. It should logically lead to developments in strategy, tactics and technology to deal with this type of terrorism, as Iraq is not going to be the only place where these methods, once learned, will be repeated. Wherever there are people without hope, who have lost  their family and property and trade, and there are those to arm them, these attacks can be mounted. At the moment nothing has been discussed in public by way of a solution.

MAY 18th 2005

Robert Scheer Tue May 17, 5:36 PM ET writes in THE NATION:
"A major irony in this tragedy is that, according to a Washington Post review of Internet postings paying tribute to the suicide-bombing "martyrs" in Iraq, most of the foreign terrorists wreaking mayhem there come from Saudi Arabia, a nation the United States protected from Hussein's army in the Persian Gulf War. Saudi Arabia also was the country of origin of bin Laden and fifteen of the nineteen September 11 bombers."

This is not an irony at all. It was always the aim of these people to overthrow the existing Saudi regime. It was also their aim to oppose American influence in the Middle East. The insurgency is a combination of those with a mission, those full of anger, and those with no other source of employment. The irony is that the US, intending to be the champion of freedom and democracy, for all the right reasons, had a leadership with little knowledge of how freedom and democracy can come about and on what these depend, in the different nations and geographical regions of the world. The New World experience is as far removed from the old as it is possible to get on this planet.

JUNE 6th 2005
The following report from the BBC will, I hope, recall to readers that I tried to explain a year or so back that Hans Blix could wander around Iraq with his team for the rest of their lives without finding WMD unless they were told exactly where they were,  Many people do not understand this because they are not familiar with the mathematics of geography and geometry and human activity, or with the physical and social realities of Iraq. The extent of the latest discovery, one of 50 in recent days, is said to equal several football pitches. Not that anything like this would be needed to store biological weapons. So, as stated at the start of this saga, the only way Saddam could have complied with the UN resolution was by allowing his officials to speak freely.This he specifically, publicly and privately refused to do. It is only the freedom of speech that has revealed these places.They are never  'discoverable'.  Let us hope this will put an end to the argument that Hans Blix should have been given 'more time'.


American troops in Iraq have discovered a series of underground bunkers used by insurgents, the US military says.

A spokesman said the complex in an abandoned quarry in the restive province of Anbar covered an area the size of four football pitches.

The bunkers are said to contain a large stockpile of weapons and living areas with air conditioning and showers.

Meanwhile, Iraqi authorities said they had arrested an insurgency leader and key al-Qaeda figure in Mosul.

The arms cache was one of 50 found in recent days in Anbar province, west of Baghdad, the spokesman said.

Tips from locals and information from detainees had helped to identify the locations uncovered in the ongoing operation, the spokesman said.

He said nobody was in the underground complex near the town of Karma when it was found.

Inside they discovered weapons, ammunition, black uniforms and ski masks, night vision goggles and fully-charged mobile phones.

The complex also contained four furnished living spaces and a kitchen with fresh food, the spokesman said.

US and Iraqi forces continue to battle insurgents in the vast province following a major assault on rebels in Falluja last November.

.
Capisce?
.
JULY  12th 2005
This seems to be a suitable moment to summarise the situation. There can be no question of reducing coalition support for the Iraqi government at this time. All sorts of plans must always be ready should circumstances improve and a troop withdrawal be desired by Iraq to respond to a reduction in violence, but that does not indicate any change in policy which remains the same as ever: to ensure Iraq does not return to tyranny or dissolve in anarchy. Many have given their lives already for a democratic future. One day they must be commemorated with respect and pride in a free an peaceful Iraq. A place that could never find it future via the Saddam dynasty or the political philosophy of George Galloway, however great the errors of Bush and is team in their application of international intervention.

JULY 19th
Here are the had facts that cannot be denied. Including casualties during the invasion itself, the US led Armed Forces have been responsible for 37 percent. But I advise caution. Remember, if the operation had been a total success, coalition forces would be responsible for nearly 100%, if law and order had been successfully imposed and there had been no insurgents and suicide bombers. As it is, the statistics below do not go beyond march. The deaths and damage now are being caused by insurgents. Of course it can be argued that the coalition are responsible jointly, with the interim Iraqi government, for preventing this. Now that we have suffered suicide bombers in London there may be an even greater incentive to find an ingenious method to detect them before they carry out their attack.. At the moment there has been no public hint of any method to do this, but then it goes without saying that such methods will not be discussed in public! Anyway, here is the Reuters report of a joint US-British NGO survey.

Tuesday July 19, 06:14 PM

Iraq war takes heavy toll on civilians-survey

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S.-led forces, insurgents and criminal gangs have killed nearly 25,000 Iraqi civilians, police, and army recruits since the war began in March 2003, according to a survey by a U.S.-British non-government group.

Nearly half the deaths in the two years surveyed to March 2005 were in Baghdad, where a fifth of Iraq's 25 million people live, according to media reports monitored by Iraq Body Count.

Of the total, nearly 37 percent were killed by U.S.-led forces, the group said.

The U.S. military and the Iraqi government disputed the findings. The U.S. military said it did not target civilians.

"We do everything we can to avoid civilian casualties in all of our operations," said Lieutenant Colonel Steve Boylan, a spokesman in Baghdad.

"Since the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom until now, we have categorically not targeted civilians. We take great care in all operations to ensure we go after the intended targets."

The Iraqi government said: "We welcome the attention given by this report to Iraqi victims of violence but we consider that it is mistaken in claiming that the plague of terrorism has killed fewer Iraqis than multi-national forces."

Iraq Body Count said its findings provided "a unique insight into the human consequences of the U.S.-led invasion".

"Leaders who commit troops to wars of intervention have diminishingly few excuses for failing to seriously weigh the human costs," it said in a 28-page dossier.

The numbers included civilians, army and police recruits, and serving police. They do not include serving Iraqi military or combatant deaths, for which there are "no reliable accounts ... either official or unofficial".

The group took its data, including figures showing more than 42,000 civilians were wounded in the same period, from an analysis of more than 10,000 press and media reports.

The death toll almost mirrors a U.N.-funded survey conducted last year, which found some 24,000 conflict-related deaths since the U.S.-led invasion.

Another survey, published in Britain's Lancet medical journal last October, found nearly 100,000 deaths in the 18 months after the invasion, more than half due to violence. These findings were contested by U.S. and British officials.

Since the media in Iraq is forced to focus on Baghdad for security reasons, it is likely that Iraq Body Count's death toll throughout the country is under-estimated.

GOVERNMENT DISPUTES FINDINGS

The survey found that almost a third of civilian deaths occurred during the invasion itself, from March 20 to May 1, 2003, when U.S.-led forces carried out their "shock and awe" bombing campaign on Baghdad.

In the first year after the invasion, around 6,000 civilians were killed, a number that nearly doubled in the second year, indicating a general increase in violence. The group said deaths caused by insurgents and criminals had risen steadily.

U.S.-led forces were found to be chiefly responsible for deaths, with criminals a close second at 36 percent, while insurgents accounted for a surprisingly small 9.5 percent.

That would not appear to tally with the situation on the ground, where insurgent violence is rife. The Iraqi government disagreed with the finding.

"The international forces try to avoid civilian casualties, whereas the terrorists target civilians and try to kill as many of them as they can," it said in a statement, which also provided some government statistics on recorded deaths.

Ministry of Health figures showed 6,629 civilians were killed between April 2004 and April 2005. Ministry of Interior figures, which include armed forces casualties, showed 8,175 Iraqis were killed between July 2004 and May 2005.

The Body Count survey would also appear not to capture the full extent of the devastation caused by insurgent car bombings. Over the past 18 months, hundreds of suicide car bombs have exploded around the country, killing well over 2,000 people.

AUGUST 19th 2005
I will let this AFP report speak for itself. Nobody in their right mind can can want anything but success for the new Iraqi constitution, and the abject failure of the UN to back wholeheartedly the removal of Saddam remains the cause of much of the anarchy in Iraq, yet it was clear from the start that Bush and his administration, even when they are right, were so expert at losing the heats and minds of the International Community and so inadequate in their post-war planning ("We don't do peace") that this disaster was Bush made and managed throughout.

Iraq casts darkening cloud over Bush administration

Fri Aug 19, 1:41 PM ET

Thursday September 22, 12:39 PM

"To apologise for what happened, to guarantee that it does not happen again, and third, to provide some compensation for all the damage they did during the operation," he said.

SEPTEMBER 29th 2005
Leaving the above incident to cool down, I would like to comment on two  things.

First, the decision by an American court today to order the release of more pictures of prisoner abuse - that is to say principally sexual humiliation. It is clear, as I suspected when this matter first arose, that this abuse was permitted under instructions from a very high level. Some seriously unqualified people in military intelligence, having been told torture was not allowed but information was to be extracted, had the unbelievably stupid idea that humiliation could be permitted and was publicly deniable, leaving as it did no marks and perhaps, they were told, not something the prisoners would wish to talk about in public later. I was reminded that that when the British were in Aden trying to keep warring factions apart and control insurgents in the Yemen, the solution to extracting information was to take a prisoner with valuable information out into the desert and bury him up to the neck in the sand. He then had the opportunity to spill the beans or be left there, where the local fauna would wander by and eat them before too long. I am reliably informed they always cooperated and were brought home intact.

The second thing to discuss is General Myers' assertion that what is being done in Iraq is difficult "because it has never been done before." Surely this is true of all great enterprise. The difficulty is that it is being done in the teeth of public opposition at home and abroad because the motives were suspect. Personally I think Blair's actions were honest, and America had nothing to gain financially, so the fact that they are both incompetent in this sort of enterprise is no reason to suspect their motives. The difficulties we are in now have indeed been endured before, and a recent BBC programme about the British retreat from Aden told the story (though without mentioning the technique I outlined above). Towards the end of that saga, all the different factions in the Yemen buried their differences in order to terrorise the British forces and civilians. They even booby-trapped children's toys. They were convinces that if the British (who were governing the land as a protectorate and had killed about 40 people during the period of their rule) were to leave, an era of peace, plenty and national pride would follow, supported by the gallant Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. So at last the British Government gave in to the clamour at home and abroad and left. There followed years and years of civil war, insurgency and terrorism in which thousand upon thousand was slaughtered, revolution succeeded revolution until exhaustion and attrition brought, eventually a sort of relative calm.

What the coalition is now trying to do in Iraq, with the approval of the United Nations, is indeed to do something which difficult: to stay the course and leave behind a democratic state with means to protect and police itself and renew itself through free and fair elections. The certain outcome that would result if we abandon this is what makes it important to stay that course. It is difficult it because it has never been done before, but because it has not had the expertise or the control or the global support it should have done.

OCTOBER 3rd 2005

UNITED NATIONS -  The United has begun distributing millions of copies of Iraq's draft constitution ahead of an Oct. 15 referendum to approve or reject the document, which was reportedly criticized in a leaked U.N. memo.

U.N. officials on Monday sought to downplay the leaked internal analysis written on Sept. 15 that looked at the document's weaknesses. Newsweek reported that the memo warned that the constitution is a "model for the territorial division of the State."

But the officials said it did not mean the U.N. was backing away from the constitution, which was the result of weeks of intense negotiations.

"As far as the U.N. is concerned, the constitution itself will have to be judged by the Iraqis on the 15th of October during the referendum," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. "It should come as no surprise that within the U.N. staff who deal with Iraq there would be papers analyzing latest developments in that country, but it's an internal analysis."

Many officials both inside and outside Iraq have warned that the constitutional process, meant to unite Iraq, instead underscored divisions among Iraq's three main communities. Sunni Arab leaders fear the constitution will fragment Iraq, allowing Shiites in the south and Kurds in the north to form mini-states.

The run-up to the referendum has seen a wave of violence from the Sunni-led insurgency, in which more than 200 people have been killed in the past eight days, including 16 U.S. troops. Late last month, the International Crisis Group said the efforts to push through a constitution so quickly had only exacerbated tensions and could make the insurgency worse.

Nonetheless, the referendum is going ahead, and distribution to all of Iraq has begun, U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said Monday.

Haq said some 4 million copies would be printed in Arabic — at a rate of 250,000 a day — while the Kurdish north will get 1 million. Another 250,000 will be printed in Turkoman, and 150,000 in Syriac languages, modern variants of the Aramaic spoken in Jesus' time.

Iraqi groups are handling most of the distribution, with Baghdad and southern cities such as Basra and Kerbala already receiving copies, Haq said.

"Printing in Arabic started on Sept. 19, the day after the final text was approved, and it's being distributed to all and sundry," Haq said.

Iraq's Council of Ministers will have various Sunni groups distribute the text to the violent Sunni Triangle, after initially failing to find anyone to do the job because of fears of attack.

OCTOBER 8th
The forthright approach continues to the problem of infiltrators of the Basra Police who have show their hand as supporters of terrorism, opponents of the democratic process and involvement in attacks on British troops. 12 men have been seized and detained. It is not clear to what extent Shia Cleric Muqtada-al-Sadr's 'Mehdi Army' has sprouted offshoots acting beyond his control or without his tacit approval. He himself is ostensibly now acting within the democratic process. That process nearly got screwed by a change in the rules that would have made it almost impossible for the new constitution to be rejected, but an intervention from the UN appears to have convinced the interim government that twisting the process is not the way to go. Meanwhile a deputation of diplomats from the Arab League has gone to Baghdad in an attempt at reconciliation in a situation they see as headed for civil war. It would appear that as the next moment of truth approaches, reality is being faced up to on all sides. This will be dangerous, but necessary.

A 6,000 word letter from Osama bin Laden's deputy in Iraq, discovered by US troops, dated early July, urges terrorist groups to cease attacks on civilians and revert to attacks on US and British soldiers. The document sets out a strategy for a future empire much like Saddam had no doubt contemplated himself, though this time an Islamic rather than a secular design, for an empire that covers Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt, removes Israel and takes over all Arabia, not by conventional military means but by the methods now being tried and tested.

OCTOBER 11th
There has been no British apology for the events of SEPT 22 (see that date above) but a joint expression of regret by both sides and Britain will pay for the repairs. Meantime there is a move to take serious action concerning the embezzlement of a stupendous amount of money by the Iraqi interim administration in the period immediately after the invasion. If it can be traced and recovered, that would be nice.....


OCTOBER 16th - I include this Reuters report in full. Anybody not moved by the progress made here would have to be scarcely human. Behind the bald facts is the the incredible truth for most Iraqis who have defied the threats of terrorists - they were free to vote, in safety, as they wished, on the new constitution, and will be free to discuss it again in future.

 Saturday October 15, 11:20 PM (But Sunday 16th in Iraq) BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi officials counted ballots on Sunday after a historic vote on a U.S.-backed constitution with the fate of the document in the hands of a few provinces where Sunnis may muster enough "No" votes to block it.

A massive security clampdown prevented any serious insurgent attacks on voting day, with only scattered strikes reported around the country after months of Sunni Arab militant bloodshed that has killed thousands.

Election officials said partial results from the vote could be available as early as Sunday, but that it would take several days for the verdict to become clear.

If the constitution passes Iraq will go to the polls again in December to elect a new, four-year parliament in a step that Washington says will mark its full emergence as a sovereign democracy and new Western ally.

A "No" vote would force the country's warring factions back to the drawing board, limiting December's election to a new interim government to redraft the charter.

Most of Iraq's 18 provinces were expected to support the constitution, following Shi'ite and Kurdish government leaders who have tailored many of its provisions to their needs.

But it could still be blocked if two thirds of the voters in at least three provinces reject it.

Electoral officials said as many as 10 million of Iraq's eligible 15.5 million voters cast ballots, which would give a turnout of around 65 percent -- higher than the 58 percent recorded in January when the country went to the polls for the first time since Saddam Hussein's 2003 overthrow.

Despite the uncertainty, Saturday's election won praise from the United Nations and the Bush Administration.

"The vote today is an important milestone. They will have elections in December for a permanent government. Every time the Iraqi people have been given an opportunity to express themselves politically they have taken it," U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the BBC in an interview.

FOCUS ON MOSUL

The White House praised the large turnout in the referendum and the calm relative to the January election of an interim government when more than 40 people were killed in more than 100 insurgent attacks, including suicide bombings.

"It appears that the level of violence was well below the last election," White House spokesman Allen Abney said.

"Today's vote deals a severe blow to the ambitions of the terrorists and sends a clear message to the world that the people of Iraq will decide the future of their country through peaceful elections, not violent insurgencies," he added.

Saturday's ballot came exactly three years to the day after Iraq's last constitutional referendum, which asked voters if they wanted to extend Saddam's rule by seven years. The results gave Saddam 100 percent on a 100 percent turnout in a gesture of defiance towards a U.S. administration set on toppling him.

This year Iraq's sectarian feuds have ruled out such an unambiguous outcome, with many Sunnis fearful Iraq may break up into Shi'ite and Kurdish spheres that will deprive them of both power and oil.

At least two Sunni-dominated provinces -- Anbar to the west and Salahadin around Saddam's hometown of Tikrit -- are all but certain to vote heavily "No". An electoral official in Tikrit itself, Saleh Farah, said votes against the constitution in the city were 43,571 -- or 96 percent of those voting.

The key could lie in the northern province of Nineveh and the city of Mosul. Sitting some 400 km (250 miles) north of Baghdad, Mosul has a volatile mix of about two million Sunni Arabs and Kurds near some of Iraq's richest oil fields.

Arabs accuse Kurdish leaders, whose autonomous region of Kurdistan lies just outside the city, of packing Mosul with Kurds. The Kurds deny this, but it is unclear if Sunni opponents of the constitution can rally the numbers to swing the province to the "No" camp and defeat the constitution nationally.

Few were betting on the outcome, and at least one prominent Sunni leader said that the real answer to Sunni fears may be to seek changes within the new political system.

"If we are certain that no serious infringements or fraud have occurred, then we will deal seriously with the new reality," said Hussein al-Falluji, who negotiated on the current version of the constitution.

"We're focussing on taking part in the coming election at full strength to create a new balance in parliament and then we will act firmly to amend the constitution."

(Additional reporting by Ibon Villelabeitia in Mosul)

END OF REUTERS REPORT

We will get the result next week

OCTOBER 18th (Tuesday)
The counting of the votes on the Referendum on the Constitution is delayed by a need for further verification. It is certainly vital that any complaints or doubts about the fairness and security of the vote are examined sooner rather than later and if any areas of failure are detected they should be rectified now. We don't want a later rerun of this election or a result that is challenged.
Meanwhile our media are raising the question of the British troops' morale, pointing to the possible suicide of a key investigating officer in the Military Police, the reluctance of a military hero to return to the fray, and one soldier who refuses to obey orders on the grounds that the war is illegal. Hardly surprising when it is the media who give the platform for people without knowledge or responsibility to say that the war was illegal.
What is certainly true is that the strain on our soldiers in Iraq is terrible. There is nothing that relieves it and, if the cause itself is in doubt, morale will crack. It has been obvious from the start, repeated regularly in these diaries, that the awfulness of this exercise is the fault of those who, unable to prevent it, have undermined it.

OCTOBER 19th 2005
The trial of Saddam Hussein has started. His case in his defense is simply stated: he is above the law because he was chosen by all Iraqis as their leader. The invasion by the coalition countries was illegal, so the court and the trial are illegal and he is still President of Iraq

It will be interesting to see if these claims are to be formally rebutted. It can reasonably be argued that he was never elected by free elections. It can reasonably be argued that the large number of coalition countries who took action to remove him did so at the behest of an overwhelming majority of Iraqis who were absolutely terrified of him and of his WMD which he used to make his overthrow impossible. The fact that he did not leave WMD lying around to incriminate him is not an issue. I assume the legality of the court will be asserted and the trial will proceed. He has pleaded not guilty so far only on the basis of the incompetence of the court. He will have to do better than that as the charges are brought in due course. There is no requirement that he be tried at the International Court - the policy is that criminals should be dealt with in their own countries. However the proceedings will be subject to international public scrutiny and no doubt international judgment.

OCTOBER 21st
A member of the team of defence lawyers representing one of Saddam's co-accused was kidnapped yesterday and today found dead. It remains to be seen if the responsible persons and motive can be identified, but since the beneficiary of this event would seem to be Saddam, the obvious suspicion falls on his supporters. Their aim is presumably to call the fairness of the process, in an atmosphere of intimidation, into question. It is also possible to speculate that some of the co-accused may be intending to give evidence against Saddam in their own defence. Saddam's supporters claim that the assassination is the work of those wishing to see him convicted but have not so far produced any logical reasoning to support this theory, even speculatively.

OCTOBER 23rd
It is assumed by many commentators that Saadoun al-Janabi, the assassinated lawyer defending one of Saddam's judges accused of passing collective death sentences on a town where an attempt on Saddam's life had originated, has been the victim of Saddam's opponents. This makes no sense. Terrorising lawyers or witnesses undermines the credibility of the trial. Only Saddam's supporters stand to gain from that.

OCTOBER 25th
78%-22%  in favour of the Constitution is a clear overall result.
The NO vote by the Sunnis in 3 regions was important. It is good that this negative vote was registered. It will give the Sunnis in those regions faith in the process. Never in a million years would they have believed such a democratic expression possible. Now they can take part with more confidence in the Assembly and in the next General Election which will define the government. Modifications to the constitution can still be made, with fuller participation now. Meanwhile we must honour those who have given their lives in recent days as victims of the misguided, misled and desperate who for one reason or another have decided the only way forward is to kill their fellow men and stop the democratic process at all cost, in the name of Allah, revenge or a large sum of money to help their unemployed families from the insurgent war treasury.

NOVEMBER 4th
The insurgents have persisted in their murderous ways over the past weeks. In America the public are turning away from George Bush because of the casualties of their own troops and of Iraqi civilians. Yet the overwhelming opinion within the military is that it is vital to finish the job, and the majority of Iraqis are clear on the need to keep the coalition forces there to train up their army. A new development has been the declared aim now by the coalition to approve the recruitment of previous members of Saddam's army below a certain rank who are willing to join the Iraqi army. A debate on BBC TV with military and political representatives showed clearly that regardless of anyone's views it is unthinkable to abandon the enterprise at this stage, and ridiculous to specify a date at which coalition troops will leave. Withdrawal must be phased and depend on circumstances and the wishes of the elected Iraqi government.
The debate also clarified publicly what has been obvious for some time: there are different categories of insurgents, some of whom are utterly opposed to the construction of a democratic state of Iraq (federalised or united) and others who are not but for circumstantial reasons have thrown in their lot with the insurgents, often for survival, some for revenge, some for tribal association reasons, some for religious tradition, some for a mix of all these. The way forward must include a way to allow these different categories who accept a democratic outcome to cease insurgency on terms that are possible for them. It is not just Iraq but the whole region that must be stabilised. There has never been an alternative, no matter what hell we go through to get there.


NOVEMBER 11th 2005
I have imported this Associated Press report complete. I am sure they will not mind. Credits are at the end.

Fri Nov 11, 5:32 AM ET

BAGHDAD, Iraq - In the early morning sun, 12-year-old Walid Salim strides to the yard of his school, kisses Iraq's flag and hoists it high. At a lunchtime cafe, three 18-year-old friends gather to eye girls and talk cars.

Free to surf the Web, a university professor gleefully searches for news from afar. In a small house, a mother worries for her sons as news of a suicide bomb flashes across town.

On this typical day in the life of Iraq, shaken as it often is by violence, a whole nation of people get up each morning and try to live normally — going to school, earning a living, getting married, having fun.

Men, women, children and teenagers, Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, this is the story of one day of their lives.

____

The sky is still dark when Mohammed Khallaf, his wife Fadhila, and their 12 children begin to stir Thursday in their small house in the Shiite slum of Sadr City. First come the morning prayers, then the dash to school and work.

In the chaos of a big family, the shoes of the youngest boy, 9-year-old Yahya, cannot be found, bringing shouts and suspicions from the father.

Eventually, the boy admits he threw the shoes on the roof. No shoes, no school, he figured. On Thursday, he has science and he does not like his teacher.

With the shoes down, the children finally off to school and the oldest sons — ages 28 and 23 — off to jobs, Fadhila and her older daughters settle into their morning chores: washing dishes, washing clothes, cleaning the house.

___

At al-Diraya elementary school in Baghdad's Harithya neighborhood, the sun is well up and the air warm by 8 a.m., when 12-year-old Walid raises the Iraqi flag with its red, white and black strips and its words: "Allahu Akbar," "God is Great."

In a small dusty classroom, dirty with mold but brightened by a red plastic flower in a vase, English teacher Azhar Hashim tells a student practicing the words "I'm from Iraq," to raise his voice when he says that.

"We all have to be proud of our country," she says, her black dress stained white with chalk.

In the next room, Thanaa Mohamed asks her students to describe the rights of Iraqi citizens. "Equality and freedom," answers 12-year-old Jiwan Arasin.

"Who can define equality?" Mohamed asks. "All people were born free," answers Esraa Jabbar.

And freedom? "To express your opinion freely," answers Walid Khalid.

The school's biggest problem is parents' fear of attack, which often keeps children home. There also is the disturbing trend of students asking each other if they are Sunni or Shiite, says principal Yasamin Subhi Amin.

The teacher of Islamic education is under orders to tell children they are all Muslim.

____

Far to the south, it is the freedom to make money that preoccupies Sami Dawoud Ali, a Basra businessman who owns a dock and a warehouse on the Shatt al-Arab river that flows between Iraq and Iran

Ali owns 12 boats himself, and dreams of turning them into a bigger fleet someday. For now, his port takes in large boats loaded with food, used cars and household electronics.

As he chats, Ali must duck away often to check on the 50 workers unloading cargo, or talk by cell phone with shipping agents in bustling Dubai, down the Persian Gulf.

Government has hindered his business, he says: Officials and political parties demand bribes and push him to hire certain people.

But his friends in the government also help cut red tape.

"I am a close friend of the Transportation Minister and this makes my work easier," Ali says, leaning back in his chair, surrounded by faxes and phones. "Otherwise my business would have been much slower."

____

At an Internet cafe on Baghdad's busy Palestine street, Dr. Sahar Nafi Shakir is checking her e-mail as usual, and surfing the Web for news on international geology conferences.

Shakir, an assistant professor at nearby Mustansiriyah University, first used the Internet in mid-2002. At the time, with Saddam Hussein still in power, she needed special permission from the campus security chief and the approval of her boss.

"You cannot compare these days to those of Saddam, when it comes to the Internet," she said, smiling widely.

Packing up her bag, she rushes off to a class.

"In the past, Iraq was a big prison," she says. "Today it is a jungle, and I love living in a jungle."

___

Across town, the roar of explosives rings out. In a flash, there is broken glass, shreds of furniture, pools of blood.

A suicide bomber has mingled among the policemen who drop by every day for an early lunch at the Qadouri Restaurant, one of the few remaining restaurants on what used to be a street full.

American soldiers armed with M-16 rifles, in full battle dress, rush to stand guard. The toll: more than 40 dead and two dozen wounded.

Back at her house in Sadr City, Fadhila hears the news and frets: Her sons are out working somewhere in Baghdad.

"Don't worry. Every person will die on the day when God wants him to die," her husband says.

"I will not let them go to work from now on," she answers.

"How are we going to make a living?" her husband asks.

In mid-afternoon, the sons return home, unharmed.

______

The children of Ibrahim Ali and his wife Fatima Mohammed also come home — to a lunch of soup, rice and bread warmed by their father, and an afternoon of staying indoors.

Ali has converted a small part of his family's house in the market city of Baqouba to a shop selling cigarettes and sweets. His wife works as a clerk in the governor's office.

The oldest, Salam, 12, wants to play soccer with his friends after school. "But my mother won't let me go outside after school," he said, because of fears of attacks.

Instead, in the small house with two rooms, the children do their homework or watch TV.

___

As the afternoon wears on, three friends watch the crowd filling the rooftop Dream Land Cafe in the upscale Zayouna neighborhood of Baghdad. Sultan Amjad, Harith Muthana and Marwan Walid, all 18, have known each other since grade school.

They spent the early afternoon eyeing girls outside a junior high, trying to attract attention with little luck.

"We will come next Thursday and do it again. We will never give up until we get girlfriends," Walid said.

Cars are their other passion: Amjad's father owns a car shop, and he often regales his friends with photos, snapped on his mobile phone, of fancy cars for sale.

By 4 p.m., the friends are on the street, dickering with a merchant over a pair of flip-flops, then heading for an Internet cafe.

"We'll go online and find some girls to chat with," Walid says.

But the Internet place is packed. Still boasting of their plans, the three head home.

___

Dusk is falling in Sulaimaniyah as Maliha Mahmoud begins to clean and prepare her family's oil lantern.

Each night, the electricity is cut off, even here in the Kurdish north where violence is lower and the economy better.

She and her husband, Khalid Majid, a teacher, have 10 children. Even with better times, they barely scrape by.

As everywhere across Iraq, the daily electricity blackouts seem to rankle.

"We have some daily hardships," Majid said. Yet despite that, "our life is much better than compared to Saddam time."

____

Editors: Associated Press reporters Omar Sinan, Qassim Abdul-Zahra, Sinan Salaheddin and Bassem Mroue in Baghdad; Abbas Fayadh in Basra; Hanaa Abdullah in Baqouba; Yahya Barzanji in Sulaimaniyah; and Abdel-Hussein al-Obeidi in Najaf contributed to this report.

---

NOVEMBER 12th
A conjunction of events is moving things forward:

• A Visit to Iraq by the UN Secretary General to advise all sides on the need for reconciliation, and for Sunnis to take part in the constitutional government.
• The violent attack by suicide bombers from Iraq on the hotel in Jordan, which has not served Al Qaida's cause.
• The death from natural causes of Saddam's former deputy.[Since proved a false report - he remains the 'most wanted']
  
• The significant rise of a political movement in the US amongst Democrats and Republicans to clarify the process and the end-game in Iraq.
• The coming initiative by the Arab League in support of a democratic Iraq.
• The coming Iraqi general election.
  

Perhaps a combination of pressures can bring realism to the thinking of those in Iraq who, while not terrorists, have still not  realised that the way forward has to be one where support for the Iraqi government and the movement towards an inclusive constitution should be put on the front burner. There is no point in rushing things, but timing is always the essence of initiatives. It is up to the free Iraqi media and media in the rest of the Arab world, to bring out the best.

It is interesting to look back on the situation before the referendum earlier this year  http://www.globalpolicy.org/... 
See also this page  of the US Embassy in Damascus for the timeline as set out some time ago.

NOVEMBER 15th
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain could start pulling its soldiers out of Iraq next year if local forces are strong enough to keep the peace, Prime Minister Tony Blair said on Monday.

"I think it's entirely reasonable to talk about the possibility of withdrawal of troops next year but it's got to be always conditioned by the fact that we withdraw when the job is done," Blair told reporters after talks with Iraqi Vice President Adel Abdul.

Meanwhile back at the ranch....they seem to have noticed something at last.
Reuters - Mon Nov 14, 3:40 PM ET
WASHINGTON  - The U.S. government is not doing enough to protect nuclear weapons from terrorists and its handling of terrorism suspects is undermining America's image in the Muslim world, members of a commission that investigated the September 11 attacks said on Monday.

NOVEMBER 16th
Some less than happy revelations coming to light on prisoners being held in secret by the Iraqi interior ministry - but lets face it, they are under incredible pressure from their own citizens to get the insurgents under control. The fact that its a free country and these things come to light is what really counts in the long term. Then there are claims that the US used phosphorous flairs to flush out insurgents in Falluja - there again, as noted here at the time. Falluja was a bloody inhuman fight to the death for both sides, the enemy was utterly ruthless and some civilians may have been unable to leave. The truth is better known and faced. If, as seems possible, influential Sunnis are to come fully into the political process, it is better for all to admit to the realities and the terrible things that have happened. The use of phosphorous flares to flush out insurgents who could have lived unharmed any time they wished by joining a free democratic process is not to be equated with the painful extermination by mustard gas of civilians in towns and villages by Saddam.

NOVEMBER 22nd
The past few days have shown the insurgent suicide bombers in full flood and sophisticated roadside bombs (said to come from Iran) still causing coalition casualties. The effort to discredit the coming election is intensifying. In the US those who thought this was going to be easy are calling for a pull-out.  Most disillusioned are those who see what peace there is in the South being bought by giving in to Shiite militias and fundamentalists backed by Iran.  It is going to take nerve and persistence to see this through and there is no guarantee that the US public have it.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With the Iraq war nearly 3 years old and showing no sign of letting up, President George W. Bush said on Saturday he hoped to have Iraqi forces control more territory than U.S. troops by year's end.

Laying the groundwork for a new attempt to bolster support for the war, Bush said in his weekly radio address he could understand why many Americans wonder whether the conflict has been worth it.

"The security of our country is directly linked to the liberty of the Iraqi people," he said. "This will require more difficult days of fighting and sacrifice, yet I am confident that our strategy will result in victory."

The radio address kicked off a series of events Bush plans to promote his call for patience with the Iraq war. The speeches coincide with the anniversary of the March 2003 launch of the war in which more than 2,300 U.S. soldiers have died.

Bush has consistently refused to set a deadline for withdrawing the 132,000 U.S. troops now in Iraq.

"The situation in Iraq is still tense," Bush said. But he offered a glimmer of hope in praising the response of the Iraqi security forces to sectarian violence that erupted after the bombing of a major Shi'ite shrine on February 22.

"The effective performance of the Iraqi security forces during this crisis showed that our hard work to build up and train these forces is paying off," Bush said.

MORE RESPONSIBILITY

"In the coming months, we will help prepare more Iraqi battalions to take the lead in battle and Iraqi forces will assume responsibility over more territory," he said.

Hundreds have been killed since the destruction of the Golden Mosque in Samarra triggered an outbreak of reprisal attacks.

The crisis has deepened distrust among Iraq's majority Shi'ites and Sunnis, who were politically dominant under Saddam Hussein but now are the backbone of the anti-U.S. insurgency.

Amid fears of an all-out civil war, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said this week the strategy will be to rely on Iraqi forces to deal with such a war if it erupts.

"Our goal is to have the Iraqis control more territory than the coalition forces by the end of this year," Bush said.

Bush said with Iraqi forces taking control over more of the country, U.S. forces would be able to spend more time looking for al Qaeda militants.

Some analysts have questioned how capable Iraqi security forces would be without the aid of U.S. troops, the degree to which they are loyal to the central government and how deeply they have been infiltrated by insurgents.

Discontent with the Iraq war is a major factor in Bush's slumping approval ratings, which are mired below 40 percent.

Bush planned to couple his radio address with a meeting Saturday morning with Rumsfeld and other Pentagon officials to discuss so-called improvised explosive devices, or IEDs. The devices, the deadliest threat posed by Iraqi insurgents, are often planted by insurgents on roads to attack U.S. vehicles.

MARCH 17th 2006
The information coming out about the circumstances of the arrest of the remaining Guantanamo detainees with British connections is far from satisfactory. Little wonder that Blair is now calling for the closing of Guantanamo. We cannot know who is telling the truth here, and there is no reason to believe any particular account, but there seems to have been a crumbling, under the pressure of political imperatives demanded of security services, of reasonable control of the treatment of prisoners. It is of course absurd to expect politicians to have perfect control when institutions themselves are struggling to recruit and train to high standards those who are asked to do relatively tough and poorly paid jobs. But Guantanamo was part of an action taken above all on moral grounds, to purge an intolerable source of hostility. If the UK government is calling for the closure of Guantanamo, we can only conclude they are not content to see it continue under the present circumstances. See entry for June 29th

The new Iraqi parliament has now met for the first time. The members have been sworn in, But it has been a low key occasion as there is little to celebrate across the country just now, with insurgents taking every opportunity to murder both Sunni and Shia in order to frustrate democratic synthesis.

MARCH 19th
Mr Allawi, a man with very considerable knowledge of Iraq at all levels, is of the opinion civil war is now the state of affairs in Iraq. Dr Reid, the UK Minister of Defence, disagrees. It is true that there is no civil war by classical definition. The country is not divided into two camps based on geographic or ethnic or even clear ideological grounds; but this is because the ideological positions are so confused, some of them purely personal. Those who carry out murderous attacks do so for many different reasons. There is unfortunately a Shia/Sunni divide now, however, in the terror attacks, if only because the Supporters of Saddam were mainly Sunni. If the coalition troops were to immediately withdraw, there could be local ethnic cleansing and a civil war on a grand scale. At the moment, there is a state of extreme insecurity, revenge killings and murderous provocation. The position is that which was predicted in these pages as likely the moment it became clear, immediately after the invasion, that George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheyne had absolutely no idea what they were doing. It also bears out the earlier prediction that while George W. Bush would remove Saddam, Saddam would remove George Bush, not from the White House (as it is his last term anyway) but from the position in history he aimed to occupy by his foreign policy initiatives.

The formation of a bipartisan independent congressional committee in the US to examine the options is pretty insulting to the Bush administration.  See http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/03/15/iraq.study/

Mr Allawi said Iraq would implode if the violence got much worse.

"It will not only fall apart, but sectarianism will spread throughout the region, and even Europe and the United States would not be spared all the violence that may occur as a result of sectarian problems in this region."

In that case, this built-in intolerance was bound to have emerged at some time and it is just as well we are getting to grips with it now. There is no way that humanity could survive globalisation and the dangers of future technological progress unless the obscurantist religious beliefs of half the world on the one hand, and the fatuous, unbridled self-indulgence of the advocators of freedom without education or self imposed restraint on the other, are brought face to face with reality.

An excellent BBC Panorama filmed report from the South of Iraq shown tonight makes it very clear that while British troops might be able to start to withdraw in a year or so from the active support they provide now, international protection of the oil export routes will go on for years and, in the meantime, we could do with more unequivocal support from the EU for job which is vital for the Iraqis and for the world.

---

MARCH 24th
A Pentagon report just released in an open and classified version reveals that they now know that Saddam destroyed of buried or removed all WMD in order to satisfy the UN while spreading intelligence both internally and externally that he still possessed them in order to maintain prestige and deter any attack. He was certain that lack of a UN mandate would prevent his removal by military means. Anyone who read this website in the run-up to the war would know that this was obvious at the time and Hans Blix's efforts were a waste of time, not only because he could not have found WMD if they had been there, but because to prove they were not there was impossible whatever the truth.

---

MARCH 25th
I was hoping to refrain from commenting on the arguments that now rage on a number of recent events, but the level of debate has been so dismal I cannot let it go.

First of all, the case of Mr Norman Kember.

General Jackson himself was extremely hesitant to criticise Mr Kember for undertaking his peace work in Iraq. To be sure he recommended everyone to follow the Foreign Office advice against going to Iraq at this time, and particularly against deliberately exposing themselves to the risk of kidnap. But he made the point that the current  UN approved action in which the coalition is engaged is to bring democracy and freedom to the country and there was no way that an attempt to enforce a travel ban would be sensible.

The recovery of Mr Kember and the other remaining hostages was achieved without bloodshed, and for this reason some people have claimed without danger as their captors had, it transpired, temporarily absented themselves. This could not be further from the truth. The hostages had been allowed to move around in the premises when their captors were present in number. At this time they were absent and had left the hostages securely tied up. The final recovery of the hostages was just the last phase of many weeks of dangerous operations by coalition forces to obtain intelligence and prepare to act on it. US forces captured one of the kidnapp cell who was 'money motivated' rather than an ideologue. That the final steps, taken almost immediately, were successful made them no less risky.

As for the issue of whether Mr Kember was appropriate in expressing his thanks for the rescue, what left General Jackson unimpressed was presumably not so much the lack of an effusive statement but the continuing refusal even now of the organisation for which Mr Kember works to recognise the legitimate role of coalition forces, acting at the request of the UN, the Iraqi Government, and a massive majority of Iraqi citizens.  Mr Kember has now said:

" I do not believe that a lasting peace is achieved by armed force, but I pay tribute to their courage and thank those who played a part in my release."

This debate is as old as time. The evidence of centuries is undeniable: when conflict arises at a physical level, armed force has always proved the first solution, imposing an enforced peace, after which a lasting peace is indeed only achieved by the methods of dialogue in which Mr Kimber claims to be expert. Saddam Hussein's method was to disallow all dialogue and remain at the enforcement stage, with absolute sanction imposed on any dissenters.

The cost of the rescue of the hostages is NOT an issue. It could well have been an operation that has been worthwhile not just for Mr Kimber but for Iraq and for the process as a whole. That is not to say it should be repeated if it can be avoided. There are many other people who have been kidnapped and many murdered. I this case a coalition national was rescued by coalition forces and as General Jackson made clear this would be the case again if intelligence concerning their location was obtained and rescue was assessed as achievable. There is no reason why the same would not apply to Iraqi hostages if their location is revealed.

NEXT CASE

Flt Lt Malcolm Kendall-Smith, 37, will face trial, ruled a judge advocate at Aldershot Court Martial Centre, Hants.

The officer faces five charges of failing to comply with a lawful order after refusing training and deployment to Basra, southern Iraq, last June.

Based at Kinloss, Moray, he had served in Iraq but would not return after studying legal advice to ministers.

Judge Advocate Jack Bayliss, delivering his ruling, said UK troops had full justification under United Nations resolutions to be deployed in Iraq at the time of the charges against the defendant - June to July 2005.

He added that the question of the legality of the 2003 invasion was not relevant to the court martial because it predated those charges.

It is clear that this man should have resigned his commission. There are those who say if he honestly believes an order to be illegal, he should refuse to obey it. Well, I suppose someone can honestly believe the moon is made of green cheese if they are extremely scientifically challenged. In this case, the Flight Lieutenant could be extremely legally misinformed or just suffering delusions.

The 2003 invasion was legal in any case under International law. The knowledge we now have of the positions of the French and Russian governments, who felt it expedient to frustrate any authorisation by the Security Council to remove Saddam and let Saddam know of their position, puts the latter beyond doubt.  Russia, France and Germany were not burdened with the containment of Saddam or the enforcement of no-fly zones and were not too bothered about the effects of sanctions on Iraq. There being no higher authority or Court of Appeal to the UN Security Council, the obligation to act fell on those carrying the can. That some disreputable opportunists piled in on the back of operations (this happens in most wars including the last 2 world wars) has no bearing. That the US Defence Department, one of whose representatives claimed 'We don't do peace', prevented the State Department from planning for post-war well in advance has no bearing either. In the UK, it was the peace marchers who prevented any planning, as it was 'politically incorrect' while we were giving Saddam a last chance to have planned a post-war scenario.

As for British law, the invasion was by definition legal having been addressed by every appropriate authority. Most of the leading political players were also lawyers. That 2 million people went on a march against intervention has absolutely no bearing on it. But if you are counting, many more did not march. The marchers were not a minority whose way of life needed protecting by the majority, just people who though they could leave Saddam where he was and send all the coalition troops home and bugger the consequences. They also pathetically believed that Hans Blix 'inspecting' Iraq was a reality. As I have pointed out frequently, that belief is for the mathematically challenged and the geographically inexperienced.

The contention that 'regime change' is not an option under International Law is not an excuse. It can be an obligation that is self evident if other parts of the UN Charter are acknowledged. All law is subject to this form of extrapolation in extremis. The Security Council members are obliged to act in certain circumstances and have the duty to exercise this responsibility. We all know that much law is there simply to cover the arses of lawmakers and elected representatives, and those who have ever sat near where the buck stops know it is no protection against reality.

I used to be a Ken Clarke supporter but now I realise he is a fat complacent slob.

---

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's ruling parties demanded U.S. forces cede control of security on Monday as the government launched an inquiry into a raid on a Shi'ite mosque complex that ministers said saw "cold blooded" killings by U.S.-led troops.

U.S. commanders rejected the charges and said their accusers faked evidence by moving bodies of gunmen killed fighting Iraqi troops in an office compound.

It was not a mosque, they said.

As Shi'ite militiamen fulminated over Sunday's deaths of at least 16 people in Baghdad, an al Qaeda-led group said it staged one of the bloodiest Sunni insurgent attacks in months. A suicide bomber killed 40 Iraqi army recruits in northern Iraq.

The Iraqi Defence Ministry said a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt also wounded 30 at a base near Mosul.

After 24 hours of limited communication, U.S. commanders mounted a media offensive to deny Shi'ite accounts of a mosque massacre and portray instead a bold and disciplined operation by U.S.-trained Iraqi special forces that killed 16 fighters and freed a hapless Iraqi hostage being held to ransom for $20,000 (11,500 pounds).

Three gunmen were wounded and 18 people detained, he added.

"After the fact, someone went in and made the scene look different from what it was," Lieutenant General Peter Chiarelli said of footage aired extensively on state television showing the bodies of apparently unarmed civilians in a mosque.

"There's been huge misinformation," he said. He insisted he did not know the religious affiliation of the group targeted, although the raid was the fruit of lengthy intelligence work.

He did not spell out his criticism of the Shi'ite political groups who made the massacre accusations. Confrontation between the Iranian-linked Shi'ite leaders and U.S. forces comes at a sensitive time when Washington is pressing them to forge a unity government with minority Sunnis to avert civil war.

ACCUSATION

Iraq's security minister accused U.S. and Iraqi forces of killing 37 unarmed civilians in the mosque after tying them up.

Residents and police, who put the death toll among the troops' opponents at around 20, spoke of a fierce battle between the soldiers and gunmen from the Mehdi Army militia of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose followers ran the mosque.

Though Chiarelli stressed his forces did not view the site targeted as a mosque, neighbours and clerics insisted it was. It was not, however, a typical religious building but a compound of former Baath party offices converted by Sadr followers.

Despite confusions, one thing was certain: Shi'ite leaders are up in arms against the U.S. forces who brought them to power by ousting Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated Baathist regime.

"The Alliance calls for a rapid restoration of (control of) security matters to the Iraqi government," Jawad al-Maliki, a senior spokesman of the Shi'ite Islamist Alliance and ally of Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, told a news conference.

The United States handed over formal sovereignty in 2004 but 133,000 troops in the country give it the main say in security.

Baghdad provincial governor Hussein al-Tahan said he would halt all cooperation with U.S. forces.

Aides to Sadr denied any Mehdi Army fighters were present.

But witnesses spoke of a lengthy gun battle: "The shooting lasted for more than an hour," shopkeeper Ali Abdul Jabbar said.

SADR

The fiery young cleric's militia was ordered to disband after U.S. forces crushed uprisings in 2004. But it remains a force in southern Iraq and eastern Baghdad, and is accused by U.S. officials of some of the violence that killed hundreds of Sunnis after last month's bombing of a Shi'ite shrine.

Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, at the centre of urgent U.S. efforts to stem violence by creating a unity government, has said in recent days that the militias must be brought to heel and accused Iran of funding and training some armed groups. He said militias are now killing more Iraqis than the insurgents.

Khalilzad plans ground-breaking talks with Iran to try to break the deadlock over the formation of a unity government.

Iranian backing seems to have been critical in pushing Sadr to kingmaker status within the Alliance and to securing the nomination of Dawa party leader Jaafari to a second term. Sunni and Kurdish opposition to Jaafari is blocking a government deal.

Alliance leaders stayed away from the daily round of talks on the government, saying the mosque incident kept them busy.

President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, who has been hosting the negotiations said: "We have to know the truth about what happened, and we must not be driven by rumours. This is a very dangerous incident which we must investigate."

(Additional reporting by Michael Georgy, Mariam Karouny, Terry Friel, Hiba Moussa and Aseel Kami)

APRIL 2nd 2006
Now is the time to comment on the above. Condoleeza Rice and Jack Straw are in Baghdad. Rice has admitted the US has made "Thousands of tactical errors". Whether the incident above is one or not is not the issue. The point is they cannot leave Iraq until the Iraqis have formed their own government of national unity, which can take control of Iraqi security services, police and army. The operation has cost a lot and is still costing, in terms of lives and funds, to the coalition and to the Iraqis. It is time for them to realise that the next steps have to be completed now.

APRIL 8th 2006
If calling the state of affairs in Iraq civil war helps hem to stop it, I see no harm, but the real problem is so many of the people who should be there, organising and upholding law and order, have left the country over the past 20 years and instead of going back to clean it up are steering well clear.

APRIL 14th 2006
A significant number of recently retired US Army Generals have pointed out in no uncertain terms that Donald Rumsfeld's planning for postwar Iraq was rubbish. Well, we all remember the general who said "We don't do peace", and that explains some of it. The choices were, I assume, between a small but highly trained and expert force of peace-keepers and  trainers, or a massive force to keep law and order till a civilised society gradually emerged. Rumsfeld seems to have assumed the UN would somehow produce the former, but he wasn't even able to protect them. Bush appears to think Rumsfeld is still the man to clear up the mess he is responsible for. I suppose he would find it difficult to lay his hands on a volunteer to take over...

When you know there are things that you don't know you don't know, the sensible thing to do is to find people who might know the things you don't know and ask them what they might be. But we now know that Rumsfeld was told all the things he didn't know and took not a blind bit of notice. That's a known known now, Donald. [see entry 20th April below]

APRIL 16th 2006
This entry may be delayed while I try to connect from Washington. My web site is fussy about secure ftp access dialup criteria and while everything else works through my mobile phone, updating my site will not. This is the Reuters news that needs no comment from me.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi officials postponed a parliamentary session set for Monday, further delaying the formation of a coalition government already held up for four months because of wrangling by political groups.

The postponement came after the ruling Shi'ite Alliance, drawn from Iraq's majority community, proposed a new nominee for prime minister to end a deadlock but opposed the main Sunni grouping's candidate for speaker, raising possible new disputes.

Forty-one people, including four U.S. Marines and five insurgents, were killed in weekend violence reported by officials. Washington has blamed the political paralysis for fuelling bloodshed between Sunni Arabs and Shi'ites.

Iraqi leaders promised after national elections in December they would deliver stability, but bickering and infighting have so far dashed hopes for a national unity government, widely seen as the best way to avert a slide to sectarian civil war.

After four months of resisting Sunni and Kurdish opposition to Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari as its nominee for the top government job, the Alliance put forward Dawa party leader Ali al-Adeeb, officials in the Shi'ite bloc said on Sunday.

Although the Alliance has not officially withdrawn Jaafari's name, the new premiership proposal could end the impasse.

Parliament's acting speaker Adnan Pachachi signalled hope, saying the postponement would be just for a "few days".

Earlier, Pachachi told Reuters failure to seal a deal on top government posts before Monday could delay a new government for at least another month and force parties to choose a parliament speaker, a presidential council and prime minister in stages.

FRESH DISPUTES POSSIBLE

But Iraqi leaders could be headed for fresh discord over the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front's decision to nominate Tareq al-Hashemi as speaker of parliament.

"The Alliance has floated Ali al-Adeeb as its candidate for prime minister. But if the Alliance does not drop its opposition to Hashemi as parliament speaker the parliament session will be delayed," said an Alliance official, declining to be named.

Adeeb is not well known in Iraq but political sources said the Alliance opted for him because, unlike other candidates, he was not considered sectarian.

Even if political obstacles are overcome, no government will have easy solutions to a Sunni insurgency and sectarian bloodshed that have scared away foreign investors from the oil producer's economy.

The months of wrangling have hurt the credibility of Iraqi leaders, who have struggled to keep the country from slipping into civil war since the February bombing of a Shi'ite shrine.

Among the latest guerrilla attacks, a suicide bomber in a car killed 13 people and wounded 19 on Sunday near a market in the town of Mahmudiya, south of Baghdad.

In another incident, guerrillas killed seven men working for the police department in the northern city of Mosul.

The United States has been putting pressure on Iraqi leaders to form a coalition government, which Washington hopes will foster stability and allow it to begin withdrawing troops.

Four U.S. Marines were killed in combat on Saturday in western Anbar province, a rebel stronghold.

Since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein, more than 2,370 U.S. troops have been killed.

The long drawn out trial of Saddam, which began in October, resumes on Monday.

The former Iraqi president is facing charges of crimes against humanity stemming from the 1982 killing of 148 Shiite Muslim men and teenagers after an assassination attempt on him in the town of Dujail.

APRIL 19th 2006
It is increasingly obvious that the main reason for the failure to form a government is the long standing rivalry between two leading Shiite dynasties - the al-Hakim clan of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the clerical 'old guard' (militia: the Mahdi Army), and the family and followers of Moqtada al-Sadr (militia: the Badr Brigade). Al-Sadr draws most support from the poorer parts, is against any division of Iraq, against any foreign involvement. Al-Hakim represents a more advanced political population, not that they wish to split Iraq, but favour a degree of autonomy for Southern Iraq. The differences of opinion within the Shiite community are now manifest in the argument over the choice of Prime Minister. Meanwhile, all Iraqis suffer.

APRIL 20th
The fairest summary on Donald Rumsfeld can be found in USA TODAY at http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2006-04-19-rumsfeld_x.htm .
There is nothing I can add to that.

APRIL 25th
We now have (since a day or so) an agreement in Baghdad on a nominee for Prime Minister. The response from Al Qaida has been swift:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Al Qaeda leader in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi appeared in a rare video on Tuesday to denounce the new government as an American puppet designed to help Washington pull out of its woes in the country.

In the well-produced 35-minute video posted on the Internet, America's most wanted man in Iraq, dressed in black with a green ammunition belt, warned of more attacks: "What is coming is more painful."

The video, which an accompanying statement says is his first after he previously used audio tapes, comes two days after an audio message from Osama bin Laden was aired and a day after a bombing in Egypt killed 18 people.

The Zarqawi video first came on air in Iraq at about the same time Prime Minister-designate Jawad al-Maliki appeared on state television in a taped interview to say he was talking with all political parties to form a government of national unity.

Washington and many others see a coalition grouping majority Shi'ite Muslims, Sunni Arabs and Kurds as the only way to end the insurgency and stem sectarian bloodshed.

"This democratic play which you brought to Iraq after you promised people freedom and ... economic stability has gone with the wind," Zarqawi said.

"Today, you are trying with all means to assemble people who differ among themselves ... and apostates to form a government to save you from your critical situation," he said, at times depicted firing an assault rifle, training soldiers in the desert or consulting masked aides over a map.

Some political leaders have publicly written Jordanian-born Zarqawi off as a spent force, and he has kept a low profile recently.

But Western intelligence sources and most analysts say he remains powerful and has simply switched his sights from the U.S. military to Iraqi soldiers and police.

As Zarqawi's video appeared on television, Maliki, a tough-speaking Shi'ite with four weeks to name a cabinet acceptable to parliament, gave one of the most comprehensive outlines of his vision since President Jalal Talabani asked him to become premier on Saturday.

NO MILITARY SOLUTION

He urged Shi'ites, Kurds and Sunnis to unite against suicide bombings, shootings and assassinations that have killed many thousands of security force personnel and civilians since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, but warned there was no military solution.

"Force alone will not wipe out terrorism. If it ends in one place it pops up in another. If we are to succeed with all Iraqi people there must be solutions to unemployment and start a process of investment," he said.

Sectarian violence has rocketed since the bombing of an important Shi'ite shrine in February, and Maliki warned failure to disband militias -- linked to major political parties -- threatened to push Iraq into civil war.

"The weapons must be in the hands of the state. Their presence in the hands of others (militias) will be the start of problems that will trigger a civil war," he said.

Late on Monday, Maliki said he planned to deliver his new cabinet and government well ahead of the 30-day deadline:

"God willing, I am setting myself a timetable of 15 days to finish forming the cabinet and deliver it to the parliament."

In Washington, President George W. Bush, whose poll ratings have hit the lowest of his rule amid public disenchantment with the war, has welcomed Maliki's appointment as a historic moment.

U.S. forces are "engaged in heroic efforts" to help Iraq succeed, he said. "We're on our way to victory." There are 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.

"We've got more work to do. But the people -- our troops need to know and those working in the field need to know -- that there is a bipartisan desire for us to be successful in this very important theatre in the war on terror."

Washington has said a government of national unity will strengthen Iraq and improve its ability to maintain its own security, paving the way for some U.S. troops to go home.

But U.S. ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, who led very public U.S. efforts to push politicians into agreement, also warned Americans to prepare for a long engagement in Iraq and the region.

"We must perhaps reluctantly accept that we have to help this region become a normal region, the way we helped Europe and Asia in another era," he told the Los Angeles Times. "Now it's this area from Pakistan to Morocco that we should focus on.

(Additional reporting by Michael Georgy in Baghdad and Heba Kandil in Dubai)

---

BASRA, Iraq (Reuters) - A British military helicopter was brought down in the Iraqi city of Basra on Saturday, killing four people aboard, officials said, sparking clashes between troops and angry, chanting youths hurling petrol bombs.

Britain's government said "a number of" British military personnel were killed and said the cause was unclear. Police said a rocket hit the helicopter and firefighters said they found four charred bodies in the aircraft, which hit a house.

No one on the ground was hurt in the crash, police said. But two Iraqis were killed in clashes after youths chanted victory slogans for the Mehdi Army, a Shi'ite militia opposed to the occupying forces. The British military denied opening fire.

"I can confirm the tragic deaths of a number of British service personnel," said Defence Secretary Des Browne, who was appointed only on Friday in a cabinet reshuffle.

As troops in Warrior armoured battle vehicles, some with riot shields, cordoned off the area, youths chanting "Victory to the Mehdi Army" threw rocks and then petrol bombs. Soldiers used foam to douse fires ignited on their vehicles.

British military spokesman, Squadron Leader Al Green, said troops counted about 60 rounds fired in the air from the crowd -- not uncommon in Iraq -- and said no British shot was fired.

A local journalist said he was hit in the leg by a British plastic round and saw troops aim their ordinary rifles. He said he saw at least one man dead. Witnesses said a second man may have died in a car, the windscreen of which was smashed and bloodied.

Several people, including children, were wounded when a mortar round later struck a house nearby, witnesses said.

Dominated by the Shi'ite Muslim majority now in control in Baghdad, Basra has seen less violence than cities in the north. But friction between the occupying force and militia groups like the Mehdi Army of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr does flare up.

British military sources confirmed ground fire seemed the likeliest explanation for the crash, near the local governor's office. The make of the helicopter was not clear.

Basra police spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Kareem al-Zaidi said: "A Multi-National Forces helicopter was hit by a rocket."

GOVERNMENT

Sadr, a firebrand in his early 30s, demands an end to the U.S. and British occupation. He is a key figure in the Islamist Alliance bloc that will lead a new Iraqi government.

In September last year, British forces clashed with Mehdi Army militants. The British public was startled by images of a soldier escaping an armoured vehicle, his uniform in flames.

Senior British officers have complained rival Shi'ite militia factions have effectively taken control of different elements of Iraq's second city, close to the Gulf and the border with Shi'ite Iran, 550 km (340 miles) south of Baghdad.

There were signs of agreement among Iraqi leaders that a unity government could be formed soon. Shi'ite Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi said: "I expect the announcement will come in the next few days ... There are no serious complications."

Sectarian blood-letting has increased since the destruction of a major Shi'ite shrine in Samarra in February, prompting warnings of civil war and adding to pressure from Washington and London for Iraqis to settle their differences quickly.

Both the United States and Britain are keen to withdraw as many troops as possible as quickly as possible and are building up Iraq's own army and police to that end.

SUICIDE BOMBER

Three Iraqi Army officers, including a lieutenant-colonel, were killed inside their base by a suicide bomber in Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit on Saturday, police said. The battalion commander, a colonel, was wounded.

It was not the first time an insurgent had dressed in army uniform and evaded identity checks to attack Iraqi soldiers.

Sunni Arab insurgents, including al Qaeda's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, have said they are taking their battle to the Iraqi forces, targeting recruiting lines and senior officers.

Before Saturday, 104 British troops had died in Iraq. About 8,000 are deployed there, along with 133,000 Americans.

(Additional reporting by Alaa Habib in Basra and Ahmed Rasheed, Lutfi Abu Oun, Ibon Villelabeitia, Mariam Karouny, Terry Friel and Alastair Macdonald in Baghdad and David Clarke in London)

MAY 7th  - The story changes

Updated: Sunday, 7 May 2006, 16:36 GMT 17:36 UK

UK Army fire 'did not hit' Iraqis

Iraqi civilians killed during unrest in Basra could not have been hit by the shots fired by UK soldiers, British Army sources have told BBC News. Calm has been restored in the southern Iraqi city following unrest after a British Lynx helicopter crashed there. Five local people - including two children - are believed to have died in the fighting that followed. British investigators are examining the helicopter's wreckage to find out if it was shot down, as some reports claim. They removed the remains of the craft and a number of bodies from the crash site on Sunday. The BBC's Paul Wood visited the crash site and said most Iraqis were friendly and many said they were sorry the helicopter had been shot down. Our correspondent says the Iraqi authorities are now co-operating with the multi-national forces in Basra. British commanders say it is another sign of hope and a sign that the exit strategy for Iraq remains on track. Commons statement Defence Secretary Des Browne said up to five servicemen died in the helicopter crash. He offered his sympathies to the families of those who died. He will make a statement to the House of Commons about the incident on Monday. On the same day, the Ministry of Defence will release the identities of the servicemen who were killed. British ministers have said it is unclear why the craft went down. But if enemy fire is confirmed as the cause of the crash, it would be the first time a British military helicopter has been shot down in the area. The Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, has sent a message of condolence to UK Prime Minister Tony Blair saying the apparent shooting down was a "hideous crime against the British".

MAY 17th 2006
This is depressing news. Admittedly the journalist has always been pessimistic about Iraq, but things are not going well.
Report from The Independent, March 17th 2006

Basra carnage escalates as one person killed every hour

By Patrick Cockburn in Arbil

Published: 17 May 2006

Full article at http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article485489.ece

---

MAY 22 2006
So, at last we have a constitutionally agreed government, formed by politicians who have been elected by a large majority of the population. The time taken to arrive at this point has taken a terrible toll. The political status is far from admirable. The status of women is disappointing to say the least. The basis of the state appears to be largely sectarian. But it has to be time for outsiders to restrict their political opinion and to confine their support for the Iraqi government to backing up the enforcement of law and order. We must only hope that law and order means just that rather than religious and tribal dispute or revenge on past tragic killings whether deliberate or accidental.
The UK PM has visited today and given his encouragement.

MAY 24th 2006
So far there is no indication that Iraq will unite around the.government, even though it includes the greatest Iraqi patriots who have risked their lives opposing Saddam. Al-Zarqawi has launched a video warning Sunni's not to co-operate with a Shia-led regime. There is corruption at all levels. Murder and kidnap continue as a way of commerce as well as revenge, quite apart from religious fanaticism. It will need a strong, united government to gradually bring control over time. They don't yet have that in complete form. Yet it is true to say that progress has now been made toward that state.

MAY 26th
Frankness is to be valued, and this from Bush and Blair deserves our respect.

BBC NEWS
Friday, 26 May 2006, 07:42 GMT 08:42 UK

Bush and Blair admit Iraq errors

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George W Bush have made a stark public acknowledgment that they made mistakes in Iraq. Mr Bush said the biggest US error was the prison abuse scandal in Abu Ghraib, which it was now paying for. The two leaders have never admitted their mistakes in such frank terms, the BBC's Jonathan Beale says. They also called for the international community to give its full support to the new Iraqi government. In a Washington news conference, the British prime minister said it was important to Iraq's leaders to know that "we will stand firm with them" against "terrorism and violence". The talks in Washington also focused on Iran, with Mr Bush offering rewards for Tehran if it ends uranium enrichment. Both men have seen their popularity drop and are keen to ensure a positive legacy as their terms draw to a close, correspondents say. BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says Iraq has cast a shadow over the leaders' careers and both were seeking to play up the potential for change afforded by the new democratically-elected government in Baghdad. 'Daunting' challenge Asked about mistakes in Iraq, Mr Bush brought up the prisoner abuse scandal at Baghdad's Abu Ghraib prison.   "I learned some lessons about expressing myself maybe in a little more sophisticated manner, you know " George W Bush "We've been paying for that for a long period of time," he said. He also said he regretted having used unsophisticated language such as "Wanted dead or alive", which had been misinterpreted in some parts of the world. The BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says the US president was full of introspection after frequently being criticised for lacking powers of self-analysis. Mr Blair, who held talks with new Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki in Baghdad this week, was also prepared to acknowledge errors, accepting that the exclusion of all of Saddam Hussein's Baath party members from leadership roles may have only fuelled the insurgency. But both men remained convinced that they had done the right thing in Iraq. Mr Blair said: "I came away thinking the challenge is still immense, but I also came away thinking more certain than ever that we should rise to it." That challenge, he said, was "daunting... but inspiring". Whatever people's misgivings about the 2003 invasion of Iraq, he said, "our duty, but also the duty of the whole international community, is to get behind this government and support it". However, neither man would set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Iran warning They also discussed Iran's nuclear programme, and its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment. The US suspects Iran of seeking nuclear weapons, although Tehran says its work is for peaceful, energy purposes. Mr Bush said the US would continue to work with Iran's government despite its "intransigence" but urged it to suspend enrichment to avoid international isolation. The leaders meet again on Friday after Mr Blair's foreign policy speech at Georgetown University. In his speech, the UK leader is expected to focus on the values of democracy and reform of the post-World War II institutions, such as the UN and International Monetary Fund. Mr Blair has pledged to resign before his third term ends, which will be in May 2010 at the latest. Mr Bush leaves office in 2009. The prime minister was given wholehearted support by the president, however. Asked by a journalist what Mr Bush wanted to see in Mr Blair's successor, Mr Bush replied: "I want him to be here so long as I'm president."

---

.
JUNE 02 2006
Terrible stories are coming to light from some time back of the shooting of defenseless Iraqis by US marines who have lost control after being attacked by roadside bombs. There seems little doubt that these incidents were covered up by officers who were aware of the truth. The fact is that US and UK troops are sometimes very young and ill prepared to deal with the incredible stress of the Iraqi post-war environment. They came to liberate the country and give it the chance for democracy and an open society, and they are appalled by some of the hostility they have met. UK soldiers I have spoken to have witnessed attacks from Iraqis who have deliberately used their own children as shields, or have fired and thrown their weapon away to avoid retaliation as they know the British rules of engagement do not allow the shooting of the unarmed. When a roadside bomb is placed near a building, US soldiers may assume it was with the knowledge of those inside. In all situations like this, civilians find themselves caught between activists and insurgents and the forces of control and order. But if terrible mistakes are made they have to be acknowledged straight away. The murdering of unarmed men, women and children is never acceptable. We must assume that the US Defense Secretary had not the slightest idea that his men were going to be faced with this situation as it is clear his forces were not prepared for it, nor were their officers prepared to handle it when the worst happened. As with Abu Ghraib, it is not the men on the front line who are responsible for being in a situation they are not equal to. It is a situation that hardly anyone is prepared for. But the truth must be faced.

JUNE 06 2005

Here is a link to the most concentrated source of BBC info on Iraq http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/middle_east/2002/conflict_with_iraq/default.stm

There remain two incontrovertible causes of this disastrous situation: the failure of Bush and his administration to take responsibility for administering postwar Iraq and planning for it, and the failure of Bush and his administration to understand that US support of Israel's policy of the right to land based on both the Bible and post WWII conquests, both in Israel's favour, was not acceptable in law or logic, let alone to a Palestinian nation deprived of statehood and its Muslim supporters. The Bible is not the basis of title in the current millennium, and after WWII the International Community went to some lengths to outlaw further acquisition of land by war. There were two obvious conditions to a successful removal of Saddam Hussein: a sovereign power to take his place and a resolution of the Palestinian question on equitable and legal grounds. Until both conditions are met, chaos will continue.

JUNE 08
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is dead. That can't be bad news.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5059494.stm
But even more important may be the associated intelligence picked up as a result. This could bring in a lot of others.

NOW that the Iraqi government is fully constituted with the complement of ministers required, including Defence and Interior ministers, the moment has come for serious planning on how they can take control. This is not an easy scenario to manage. While it is vital that Iraqis take charge it is also vital that the coalition offer their very best ideas and capability to back up efforts to reverse the trends of the past months. There is an inbuilt paradox that will need careful handling. But the timing has been chosen by events, so there is no way the challenge can be avoided.

JUNE 13th
So what does George Bush do? He turns up UNANNOUNCED in Baghdad. That is about the stupidest thing he could possibly have done. It seems there is no end to the extent of the idiocy of this man and his advisors.

JUNE 21st
So far, the result of the killing of al-Zarqawi has not produced benign results. He has been replaced by another leader and al-Qaida are going to any lengths to prove they can strike wherever they like, right under the noses of Iraqi and American forces.

JUNE 29th 2006
There has been a US Supreme Court ruling on Guantanamo which has been the subject of gross misreporting in the UK. The court says Bush exceeded his authority in setting up the Guantanamo process.  On the other hand it endorses the general principal of military commissions for the hearing of cases. Apart from that it changes little and does not solve the overall problem of how to deal with these prisoners of war, many of whom cannot be sent home other than to probable torture or death. It makes it clearer that the problem must be solved, however.

JULY 10th 2006
The latest news from Baghdad reveals that sectarian strife is now reaching the level of civil war. Normal life is being brought to a standstill. Not only will those who are required to return to Iraq to help reconstruction be deterred from so doing, all those who can leave Baghdad, no matter what age or education or experience they have, if not kept there for pressing reasons or poverty, are trying to do so.


JULY 18th

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060719/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_civilians_8

The above is a link to an Associated Press report. It is grim reading.
"..parts of Iraq have seen "collusion between criminal gangs, militias and sectarian 'hit groups,' alleged death squads, vigilante groups and religious extremists."

The report from the U.N. Assistance Mission in Iraq describes a wave of lawlessness and crime, including assassinations, bombings, kidnappings, torture and intimidation.

Hundreds of teachers, judges, religious leaders and doctors have been targeted for death, and thousands of people have fled, the report said. Evidence suggests militants also have begun to target homosexuals, it said..

---

AUGUST 3rd 2006 - A PRESS ASSOCIATION REPORT 

Britain's outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned that civil war is the most likely outcome in Iraq, according to a report.

In a confidential memo to ministers, William Patey also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

The assessment was contained in Mr Patey's final telegram from Baghdad before he left the Iraqi capital last week - details of which were obtained by the BBC.

The diplomatic cable was sent to the Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary, Leader of the House of Commons, and senior military commanders in both Iraq and the UK.

Mr Patey wrote: "The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy."

He went on: "Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq - a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror - must remain in doubt."

But the memo also says that "the position is not hopeless, although it adds Iraq will remain "messy and difficult" for the next five to 10 years.
[end of introduction to the report]

Although much is being made of the 'contradiction' between this assessment and the UK/US government line that steady progress is being made, there is not necessarily a contradiction. Progress in building a new state can nonetheless be targetted by ever more vicious and desperate acts of cruelty and destruction. Nor is the flawed logic of the BBC's John Humphrys to be taken seriously. Supposedly a BBC presenter and seeker of the facts for the British Public, Mr Humphrys, while claiming to 'know nothing' of the reality in Iraq himself announces as fact that if the outcome is not as hoped for by those who backed the removal of Saddam, then the decision to remove him and the entire exercise was a mistake - the wrong thing to do. Mr Humphrys cannot, it seems, imagine that 'the right thing to do' might not turn out as imagined or end in apparent failure. He can only judge with hindsight, and in the short term. While Mao's opinion that it was 'too soon to tell' if the French Revolution has been 'the right thing to do' is the other extreme, the fact that the US made an unutterable mess of the removal of Saddam does not mean it was not a historical inevitability. The 'right' action can end in apparent failure. The 'wrong' action can meet with apparent success. I don't need to spell it out, do I? 

At the start of these Iraq diaries I suggested that Bush would remove Saddam (a necessity) but Saddam would expose Bush as an incompetent failure (indeed I suggested it would lead to his removal from the Presidency, but that was not likely when the mess became so great, so quickly that nobody else would dream of stepping up to clear up the mess).

AUGUST 4th
It has been rightly said that the 'Battle for Baghdad' has now become the 'Battle for Iraq'.
OK, then the battle for Baghdad must be won. But the various enemies will know this and if the battle for Baghdad looks like being won they will make their moves elsewhere. Make no mistake, the champions of freedom and democracy are up against men (not many women, as it happens) whose rage and determination is considerable, who demand that their God-given authority be restored, within their society and within their families. Some have lost everything, and others have access to funds with which to employ the dispossessed. They cannot join in the construction of a new Iraq, so they are bent on destroying all until they can once again rule. A divided free world that is still arguing about decisions taken years ago cannot hope for a victory that would put an end to this. Only a determined and united international community can do that. Mathematically, the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the free world view, but it is quality, not quantity, and dedication to the cause that will count.

One more point (I am tired of repeating, from before the removal of Saddam): the battle for Iraq cannot be won till a potentially viable Palestinian state is achieved and acknowledged.

---

AUGUST 9th   - I am utterly disgusted by this. It seems the very people responsible for to appalling mismanagement of a vital part of the postwar situation in Iraq are not to be brought to account. If this is because they were acting under instructions from the top, then the top people themselves should be tried.

US seeks to shield its war interrogators: report

AUGUST 10th 2006

British troops fighting in Iraq are under-equipped and overstretched, a group of MPs has warned.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4777013.stm


AUGUST 18th 2006 - BUSH FACING FACTS?

White House sees "huge challenges" in Iraq

---

SEPTEMBER 10th 2006

U.N. and donors prepare road map for rebuilding Iraq